[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":198},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-AAOI":3,"og-beat-monitoring-AAOI":197},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":179,"highlightQuarter":35,"highlightDescription":186,"sources":187},"AAOI","Applied Optoelectronics","中小モジュールメーカー（CATV 1.8GHz amplifier + Datacenter 400G/800G/1.6T transceiver）。直近8四半期（Q2 2024〜Q1 2026）は全四半期赤字を継続しつつ、ガイダンス上振れ率では光通信ピア最強クラス（8Q中5回 +10% 超）。Q3 2024（2024/11/7）の伝説的なガイダンス爆撃 +30.6%（Q4ガイド $87-101M vs Street $72M、Microsoft warrant agreement 直後）が AAOI を「AI インフラ銘柄」として認識される起点。FY25 売上 $456M（+83% YoY）→ FY26 ガイド $1.1B+（+141%）の超高成長期。","EPS ($, Non-GAAP, 赤字継続)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $M)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,55,77,95,115,136,157],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q2 2024","2024/8/8","Microsoft warrant agreement",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$42 M","$43 M",-1.6,-2.5,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"-$0.28","-$0.32",12.5,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$65 M","$54 M",18.2,null,{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$8.50","$7.85",-7.6,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":42,"guidance":46,"stock":51},"Q3 2024","2024/11/7","★ 伝説のガイダンス爆撃 +30.6%、Microsoft warrant 直後",{"actual":26,"consensus":39,"beatPct":40,"yoyPct":41},"$63 M",3.5,50.8,{"actual":43,"consensus":44,"beatPct":45},"-$0.21","-$0.17",-23.5,{"revenue":47,"eps":29},{"company":48,"consensus":49,"beatPct":50},"$94 M","$72 M",30.6,{"reportClose":52,"nextClose":53,"changePct":54},"$8.75","$13.20",50.9,{"quarter":56,"reportDate":57,"event":58,"revenue":59,"eps":64,"guidance":68,"stock":73},"Q4 2024","2025/2/27","Amazon warrant",{"actual":60,"consensus":61,"beatPct":62,"yoyPct":63},"$100 M","$98 M",2.3,68.2,{"actual":65,"consensus":66,"beatPct":67},"-$0.18","-$0.13",-38.5,{"revenue":69,"eps":29},{"company":70,"consensus":71,"beatPct":72},"$99 M","$87 M",13.8,{"reportClose":74,"nextClose":75,"changePct":76},"$38.50","$31.20",-19,{"quarter":78,"reportDate":79,"event":80,"revenue":81,"eps":84,"guidance":87,"stock":91},"Q1 2025","2025/5/8","CATV record 四半期",{"actual":60,"consensus":61,"beatPct":82,"yoyPct":83},1.9,130.2,{"actual":65,"consensus":85,"beatPct":86},"-$0.16",-12.5,{"revenue":88,"eps":29},{"company":89,"consensus":70,"beatPct":90},"$105 M",6.1,{"reportClose":92,"nextClose":93,"changePct":94},"$22.30","$26.50",18.8,{"quarter":96,"reportDate":97,"event":98,"revenue":99,"eps":103,"guidance":106,"stock":111},"Q2 2025","2025/8/7","800G ramp 遅延報道",{"actual":100,"consensus":89,"beatPct":101,"yoyPct":102},"$103 M",-2.1,137.9,{"actual":85,"consensus":104,"beatPct":105},"-$0.15",-6.7,{"revenue":107,"eps":29},{"company":108,"consensus":109,"beatPct":110},"$121 M","$109 M",11,{"reportClose":112,"nextClose":113,"changePct":114},"$37.50","$30.20",-19.5,{"quarter":116,"reportDate":117,"event":118,"revenue":119,"eps":124,"guidance":128,"stock":133},"Q3 2025","2025/11/6","1.6T 受注",{"actual":120,"consensus":121,"beatPct":122,"yoyPct":123},"$119 M","$117 M",1.4,81.9,{"actual":125,"consensus":126,"beatPct":127},"-$0.09","-$0.10",10,{"revenue":129,"eps":29},{"company":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$133 M","$116 M",14.2,{"reportClose":134,"nextClose":112,"changePct":135},"$39.80",-5.8,{"quarter":137,"reportDate":138,"event":139,"revenue":140,"eps":145,"guidance":149,"stock":154},"Q4 2025","2026/2/26","★ FY26 $1B 目標、EPS 過去最良 -$0.01",{"actual":141,"consensus":142,"beatPct":143,"yoyPct":144},"$134 M","$132 M",1.5,34.2,{"actual":146,"consensus":147,"beatPct":148},"-$0.01","-$0.11",90.9,{"revenue":150,"eps":29},{"company":151,"consensus":152,"beatPct":153},"$158 M","$146 M",8.1,{"reportClose":74,"nextClose":155,"changePct":156},"$50.20",30.4,{"quarter":158,"reportDate":159,"event":160,"revenue":161,"eps":166,"guidance":170,"stock":175},"Q1 2026","2026/5/7","FY26 ガイド $1.1B、初のガイダンス下振れ -1.9%",{"actual":162,"consensus":163,"beatPct":164,"yoyPct":165},"$151 M","$155 M",-2.6,51.2,{"actual":167,"consensus":168,"beatPct":169},"-$0.07","-$0.05",-40,{"revenue":171,"eps":29},{"company":172,"consensus":173,"beatPct":174},"$189 M","$193 M",-1.9,{"reportClose":176,"nextClose":177,"changePct":178},"$167.50","$145.57",-13.1,[180,181,182,183,184,185],"売上ビート率は控えめ（-2.6〜+3.5%）、しかしYoY 成長率は最大 +138%（Q2 2025）の爆発水準。差別化要因はガイダンス爆撃力（8Q中5回 +10% 超）。","全四半期 EPS は赤字継続中。改善傾向だが Q1 2026 で再度悪化（-$0.07）。Q4 2025 の -$0.01 が過去最良。","ガイダンス爆撃8四半期軌跡: Q2 +18%、Q3 +30.6%★、Q4 +13.8%、Q1 +6.1%、Q2 +11%、Q3 +14.2%、Q4 +8.1%、★ Q1 2026: -1.9%（初の下振れ）★ → これが Q1 2026 の株価 -13% の主因。","AAOI vs LITE vs COHR の構造的比較: 売上ビート率は全社 +1〜3% で差別化要因にならず、ガイダンス爆撃力 AAOI 最強、株価ボラ AAOI >> LITE > COHR、収益性 COHR > LITE > AAOI（赤字）、FY26 成長率 AAOI +141% > LITE +77% > COHR +20%。","株式数が60% YoY 増加（ATM offering で希薄化が激しい）。FY26 EPS 予想 -$0.20〜+$0.20（アナリスト幅大）、FY27 EPS 予想 +$1.50〜+$3.00（黒字化想定）。現在株価（May 2026, $145-167）は FY27 Forward PER 50-100x 相当。","注目カタリスト: ① Q2 2026 決算（2026/8/6）の 800G ボリューム ramp 実績と黒字化達成可能性、② FY26 通期 $1.1B ガイド達成可能性（H2 で $760M 必要）、③ Texas/Sugar Land 新工場 388,000平米ファブの capacity ramp、④ hyperscaler 800G volume orders の追加・拡大、⑤ 1.6T transceiver 量産開始時期（2026年末予定）。","Q3 2024（2024/11/7）= AAOI の歴史的ガイダンス爆撃。Q4ガイド $87-101M（中央値$94M）vs Street $72M → +30.6% 上振れ、Microsoft warrant agreement の直後に発表。株価は $8.75 → $13.20（+50.9%）の一日急伸。この決算が AAOI を CATV 中小メーカーから「AI インフラ銘柄」として市場に再認識させる起点。以降7四半期連続でガイダンス上振れを継続したが、Q1 2026（2026/5/7）で7四半期ぶりの「初の下振れ -1.9%」、株価翌日 -13.1% で爆撃モードが一旦終了。次の Q2 2026 決算（2026/8/6）の 800G ramp 実績で再加速できるかが分水嶺。",[188,191,194],{"label":189,"url":190},"AAOI SEC 8-K filings (Q2 2024 ~ Q1 2026)","https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001158114&type=8-K",{"label":192,"url":193},"コンセンサス: Zacks、LSEG/Refinitiv、Investing.com、Trefis","https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/AAOI",{"label":195,"url":196},"AAOI Earnings Press Releases","https://investors.ao-inc.com/news/news-details","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-AAOI.png?title=AAOI%20Applied%20Optoelectronics%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=bb139d0995c085b7",1779172235924]