[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":198},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-COHR":3,"og-beat-monitoring-COHR":197},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":180,"highlightQuarter":12,"highlightDescription":186,"sources":187},"COHR","Coherent","光通信のレガシー大手。直近8四半期（Q4 FY24〜Q3 FY26）の売上ビート率は +1.5〜+3.2%、ガイダンス上振れ率は +1.0〜+3.4%、いずれも +5% を一度も超えない「コンサバな堅実派」の典型。Jim Anderson CEO 就任（2024/6）後は戦略的に「予測可能性」を重視。EPS ビート率も FY25 前半は +20〜35% だったが、最近は +5〜13% まで縮小。NVIDIA / SMCI / AppLovin / Credo 型の「Street 予想 vs 現実の認識ギャップ」が小さい銘柄。","EPS ($, Non-GAAP)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,54,76,98,119,140,159],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q4 FY24","2024/8/15","Jim Anderson CEO 就任直後の初決算",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$1.314 B","$1.276 B",3,9.1,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$0.61","$0.29",110.3,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$1.355 B","$1.335 B",1.5,null,{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$53.50","$71.90",34.4,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":43,"guidance":46,"stock":50},"Q1 FY25","2024/11/6","AI需要本格化",{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":42},"$1.348 B","$1.320 B",2.1,28,{"actual":44,"consensus":21,"beatPct":45},"$0.74",21.3,{"revenue":47,"eps":29},{"company":48,"consensus":26,"beatPct":49},"$1.370 B",1.1,{"reportClose":51,"nextClose":52,"changePct":53},"$87.20","$105.60",21.1,{"quarter":55,"reportDate":56,"event":57,"revenue":58,"eps":63,"guidance":67,"stock":72},"Q2 FY25","2025/2/5","1.6T 開発加速",{"actual":59,"consensus":60,"beatPct":61,"yoyPct":62},"$1.435 B","$1.390 B",3.2,27,{"actual":64,"consensus":65,"beatPct":66},"$0.95","$0.70",35.7,{"revenue":68,"eps":29},{"company":69,"consensus":70,"beatPct":71},"$1.480 B","$1.460 B",1.4,{"reportClose":73,"nextClose":74,"changePct":75},"$104.50","$95.30",-8.8,{"quarter":77,"reportDate":78,"event":79,"revenue":80,"eps":85,"guidance":89,"stock":94},"Q3 FY25","2025/5/7","A&D 事業売却計画",{"actual":81,"consensus":82,"beatPct":83,"yoyPct":84},"$1.498 B","$1.475 B",1.6,24,{"actual":86,"consensus":87,"beatPct":88},"$0.91","$0.93",-2.2,{"revenue":90,"eps":29},{"company":91,"consensus":92,"beatPct":93},"$1.510 B","$1.495 B",1,{"reportClose":95,"nextClose":96,"changePct":97},"$76.50","$80.20",4.8,{"quarter":99,"reportDate":100,"event":101,"revenue":102,"eps":107,"guidance":111,"stock":115},"Q4 FY25","2025/8/13","FY25 通期 +47% 売上成長で総括",{"actual":103,"consensus":104,"beatPct":105,"yoyPct":106},"$1.529 B","$1.500 B",1.9,16.4,{"actual":108,"consensus":109,"beatPct":110},"$1.00","$0.92",8.7,{"revenue":112,"eps":29},{"company":113,"consensus":114,"beatPct":93},"$1.555 B","$1.540 B",{"reportClose":116,"nextClose":117,"changePct":118},"$97.50","$99.30",1.8,{"quarter":120,"reportDate":121,"event":122,"revenue":123,"eps":127,"guidance":131,"stock":136},"Q1 FY26","2025/11/5","A&D 事業売却完了",{"actual":124,"consensus":125,"beatPct":105,"yoyPct":126},"$1.580 B","$1.550 B",19,{"actual":128,"consensus":129,"beatPct":130},"$1.16","$1.10",5.5,{"revenue":132,"eps":29},{"company":133,"consensus":134,"beatPct":135},"$1.630 B","$1.585 B",2.8,{"reportClose":137,"nextClose":138,"changePct":139},"$115.40","$134.00",16.1,{"quarter":141,"reportDate":142,"event":143,"revenue":144,"eps":148,"guidance":152,"stock":155},"Q2 FY26","2026/2/4","Apple VCSEL 契約",{"actual":145,"consensus":146,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":147},"$1.690 B","$1.640 B",17.5,{"actual":149,"consensus":150,"beatPct":151},"$1.29","$1.14",13.2,{"revenue":153,"eps":29},{"company":154,"consensus":145,"beatPct":18},"$1.740 B",{"reportClose":156,"nextClose":157,"changePct":158},"$135.00","$138.50",2.6,{"quarter":160,"reportDate":161,"event":162,"revenue":163,"eps":168,"guidance":172,"stock":177},"Q3 FY26","2026/5/6","NVIDIA $2B 提携",{"actual":164,"consensus":165,"beatPct":166,"yoyPct":167},"$1.810 B","$1.780 B",1.7,20.5,{"actual":169,"consensus":170,"beatPct":171},"$1.41","$1.36",3.7,{"revenue":173,"eps":29},{"company":174,"consensus":175,"beatPct":176},"$1.980 B","$1.915 B",3.4,{"reportClose":178,"nextClose":179,"changePct":166},"$374.01","$380.50",[181,182,183,184,185],"売上ビート率：8四半期で +1.5%〜+3.2%、全て +5% 以下の超控えめ。NVIDIA / SMCI / AppLovin / Credo 型の「Street 予想 vs 現実の認識ギャップ」が小さい。","ガイダンス上振れ率：全四半期で +1.0%〜+3.4%、+5% 超えは一度もなし。CEO Jim Anderson 就任後（2024/6）戦略的に「予測可能性」を重視。","EPSビート率の縮小トレンド：Q2 FY25 +35.7% → Q1 FY26 +5.5% → Q3 FY26 +3.7%。市場の EPS 予想精度が向上し「サプライズ余地」が枯渇。","株価反応も控えめ：8四半期中、+15% 以上の翌日上昇は2回（Q4 FY24 +34.4%、Q1 FY25 +21.1%）。期待先行型銘柄ではなく、長期成長を Coupon clipping 型で取りに行く銘柄。","AI 光通信ピア対比：COHR（安定大手）／LITE（COHR 類似だが規模小・変動大）／CRDO（爆撃型・ボラ大）／AAOI（中小・受注次第）。Blow-out earnings を求めるなら CRDO / NBIS の方が爆発力高い。","Jim Anderson CEO 就任直後の Q4 FY24（2024/8/15）は、過去8四半期で最大の株価反応 +34.4%（$53.5 → $71.9）。売上ビートはわずか +3.0%、ガイダンス上振れも +1.5% と控えめだが、EPS は予想 $0.29 に対し実績 $0.61（+110.3%）と Street 予想を倍超え、市場の認識が一気に切り替わった。これ以降の四半期では Street 予想が COHR の実力を正確に追従するようになり、「サプライズ余地」が枯渇する代わりに「予測可能な成長銘柄」として再評価される。COHR は「ガイダンス爆撃型」ではなく「Coupon clipping 型」の典型。",[188,191,194],{"label":189,"url":190},"Coherent SEC 8-K filings (FY24-FY26)","https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001706857&type=8-K",{"label":192,"url":193},"コンセンサス: Zacks、LSEG/Refinitiv、Benzinga、StockStory","https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/COHR",{"label":195,"url":196},"Coherent Earnings Press Releases","https://investors.coherent.com/news-events/press-releases","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-COHR.png?title=COHR%20Coherent%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=74812ad4d2d7c8cc",1779172235862]