[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":220},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-MRVL":3,"og-beat-monitoring-MRVL":219},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":166,"highlightQuarter":106,"highlightDescription":172,"sources":173,"latestStock":216},"MRVL","Marvell Technology","データセンター向けカスタムAIシリコン（XPU/ASIC）と光DSP・ネットワーキングの大手。AWS等ハイパースケーラーのカスタムシリコンを設計受託する『AI半導体の隠れた本命』。決算は売上・非GAAP EPSとも毎期小幅にコンセンサスを上回る安定ビートだが、株価反応は次四半期のデータセンターガイダンス次第で乱高下する（Q4 FY25=2025/3 と Q2 FY26=2025/8 はビートでも翌日 -19.8% / -18.6%）。転機は Q4 FY26 (2026/3) で翌日 +18.4% と再評価が始動し、Q1 FY27 (2026/5) には次Q売上ガイド $2.70B（+35% YoY）を出して株価は $89 台から $200 超へ約2.4倍。ヘッドラインのビート幅は小さいが、AIカスタムシリコンの成長期待が厚い『ビート継続・成長期待』の典型例。","EPS ($, 非GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,35,58,82,105,128,150],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":31},"Q4 FY25","2025/3/5","カスタムAIシリコン・DC売上+78%で売上/EPSビート、次Qガイドもコンセンサス($1.87B)は僅かに上回るも buy-side whisper($2B級)に届かず翌日-19.8%と20年来最大の急落",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$1.817 B","$1.800 B",0.9,27.4,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$0.60","$0.59",1.7,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$1.875 B","$1.870 B",0.3,{"company":30,"consensus":21,"beatPct":23},"$0.61",{"reportClose":32,"nextClose":33,"changePct":34},"$90.14","$72.28",-19.8,{"quarter":36,"reportDate":37,"event":38,"revenue":39,"eps":43,"guidance":46,"stock":54},"Q1 FY26","2025/5/29","記録的売上$1.90B(+63% YoY)・EPSビート、次Qガイド$2.0Bも堅調だがDC成長鈍化懸念で反応冷淡、翌日-5.6%",{"actual":40,"consensus":41,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":42},"$1.895 B","$1.878 B",63.3,{"actual":44,"consensus":30,"beatPct":45},"$0.62",1.6,{"revenue":47,"eps":51},{"company":48,"consensus":49,"beatPct":50},"$2.000 B","$1.980 B",1,{"company":52,"consensus":52,"beatPct":53},"$0.67",0,{"reportClose":55,"nextClose":56,"changePct":57},"$63.73","$60.19",-5.6,{"quarter":59,"reportDate":60,"event":61,"revenue":62,"eps":67,"guidance":70,"stock":78},"Q2 FY26","2025/8/28","売上・EPSはほぼコンセンサス通りもDC売上が予想下回り、次QのDC横ばいガイドでAI鈍化懸念、翌日-18.6%",{"actual":63,"consensus":64,"beatPct":65,"yoyPct":66},"$2.006 B","$2.010 B",-0.2,58,{"actual":52,"consensus":68,"beatPct":69},"$0.66",1.5,{"revenue":71,"eps":74},{"company":72,"consensus":64,"beatPct":73},"$2.060 B",2.5,{"company":75,"consensus":76,"beatPct":77},"$0.74","$0.73",1.4,{"reportClose":79,"nextClose":80,"changePct":81},"$77.23","$62.87",-18.6,{"quarter":83,"reportDate":84,"event":85,"revenue":86,"eps":90,"guidance":93,"stock":101},"Q3 FY26","2025/12/2","DC需要で売上・EPSともビート、Q4ガイドも堅調で前回の急落から一転、翌日+7.9%",{"actual":87,"consensus":72,"beatPct":88,"yoyPct":89},"$2.075 B",0.7,37,{"actual":91,"consensus":75,"beatPct":92},"$0.76",2.7,{"revenue":94,"eps":97},{"company":95,"consensus":96,"beatPct":18},"$2.200 B","$2.180 B",{"company":98,"consensus":99,"beatPct":100},"$0.79","$0.77",2.6,{"reportClose":102,"nextClose":103,"changePct":104},"$92.89","$100.20",7.9,{"quarter":106,"reportDate":107,"event":108,"revenue":109,"eps":114,"guidance":117,"stock":124},"Q4 FY26","2026/3/5","通年締めQ4売上が過去最高$2.22B(+22% YoY)・EPS$0.80でビート、次Q売上ガイド$2.40B(コンセンサス$2.28B比+5%)・EPS$0.79($0.74比+7%)が明確に上振れし再評価始動、翌日+18.4%急騰",{"actual":110,"consensus":111,"beatPct":112,"yoyPct":113},"$2.219 B","$2.210 B",0.4,22,{"actual":115,"consensus":98,"beatPct":116},"$0.80",1.3,{"revenue":118,"eps":122},{"company":119,"consensus":120,"beatPct":121},"$2.400 B","$2.280 B",5.3,{"company":98,"consensus":75,"beatPct":123},6.8,{"reportClose":125,"nextClose":126,"changePct":127},"$75.68","$89.57",18.4,{"quarter":129,"reportDate":130,"event":131,"revenue":132,"eps":136,"guidance":137,"stock":146},"Q1 FY27","2026/5/27","売上過去最高$2.42B(+28% YoY)、次Q売上ガイド$2.70B(+35% YoY)・EPS$0.93と強気でFY27/28見通し上方修正、翌日+3.1%・株価$200超へ",{"actual":133,"consensus":119,"beatPct":134,"yoyPct":135},"$2.418 B",0.8,28,{"actual":115,"consensus":98,"beatPct":116},{"revenue":138,"eps":142},{"company":139,"consensus":140,"beatPct":141},"$2.700 B","$2.600 B",3.8,{"company":143,"consensus":144,"beatPct":145},"$0.93","$0.91",2.2,{"reportClose":147,"nextClose":148,"changePct":149},"$198.70","$204.83",3.1,{"quarter":151,"reportDate":152,"isForecast":153,"event":154,"revenue":155,"eps":159,"guidance":160,"stock":165},"Q2 FY27","2026/8/20",true,"2026/8/20 AMC 発表予定。2026/6/22時点のアナリスト予想は当期売上 $2.70 B / 非GAAP EPS $0.93、次Q (3Q 2027) 売上 $3.02 B / EPS $1.07（Koyfin 集約コンセンサス）。",{"actual":156,"consensus":157,"beatPct":158,"yoyPct":158},"n/a","$2.70 B",null,{"actual":156,"consensus":143,"beatPct":158},{"revenue":161,"eps":163},{"company":156,"consensus":162,"beatPct":158},"$3.02 B",{"company":156,"consensus":164,"beatPct":158},"$1.07",{"reportClose":156,"nextClose":156,"changePct":158},[167,168,169,170,171],"Q2 FY27（2026/8/20 発表予定）はアナリスト予想のみ先行入力。当期 売上$2.70 B / EPS$0.93、次Q (3Q 2027) 売上$3.02 B / EPS$1.07 はいずれも 2026/6/22 時点で参照可能な Koyfin 集約コンセンサス。会社ガイダンス・実績・反応は発表後に更新する。","Marvell は会計年度が1月末〜2月頭締め（FY2025 = 2024/2〜2025/2、FY2026 = 2025/2〜2026/1、FY2027 = 2026/2〜2027/1）。四半期命名は Marvell 公式プレスリリースに従う。Marvell は引け後発表のため、株価反応（騰落率）は主に翌営業日終値に表れる。","実績・会社ガイダンスは Marvell 公式IR / SEC 8-K（一次情報）、コンセンサスは LSEG / CNBC / Investing.com / Futurum 経由の事前コンセンサス代表値。株価は stockanalysis.com / Yahoo Finance / optionslam の終値を2ソースで照合。","EPSは非GAAP希薄化後。ガイダンス上振れ率 = 会社提示midpoint vs 事前アナリスト予想midpoint。","次Qガイダンスの『事前アナリスト予想（street estimate）』は Koyfin 等から後追い取得が困難なため、当時（決算発表日±数日）の決算リキャップ系 X 投稿（@tenet_research / @marketsday / @Tradinguru55 / @PennyboisTrades / @dangerousteee / @JohnCochraneX 等が「guide vs est」として引用した数値）を複数突き合わせた代表値を採用。アグリゲータ差で±数¢/±0.01〜0.02$Bの揺れがある概算。Q4 FY26→Q1 FY27 の売上$2.40B(コンセンサス~$2.28B)・EPS$0.79($0.74) は複数投稿が一致した明確なビートで、翌日+18.4%急騰の主因。","MRVL の特徴は『毎期コンセンサスを小幅に上回る安定ビートなのに、株価反応が次四半期のデータセンター・カスタムAIシリコンのガイダンス次第で乱高下する』こと。Q4 FY25 (2025/3) は売上・EPSをビートしながら次Qガイドが市場の最強気予想($2B級)に届かず翌日-19.8%、Q2 FY26 (2025/8) もほぼ通過点の決算で次QのDC横ばいガイドを嫌気して-18.6%と、『ビートでも売られる』2四半期が続いた。転機は Q4 FY26 (2026/3)。過去最高の四半期売上$2.22B(+22% YoY)とEPS$0.80でビートし、さらに次Q(Q1 FY27)売上ガイド$2.40Bが当時のコンセンサス約$2.28Bを+5%・EPSガイド$0.79が$0.74を+7%上回る明確なガイダンス・ビート（これまでの『コンセンサス並みガイド』から一変）を出したことで、AIカスタムシリコン(XPU/ASIC)のランプが数字で裏打ちされ翌日+18.4%と再評価が始動。続く Q1 FY27 (2026/5) で次Q売上ガイド$2.70B(+35% YoY)・EPS$0.93を提示しFY27/FY28見通しを上方修正、株価は Q4 FY26 直後の$89台から$200超へ約2.4倍に化けた。ヘッドラインのビート幅は一貫して小さく株価反応も一様でないため『構造転換済み』とは断じきれないが、AIカスタムシリコンの成長期待が厚い『ビート継続・成長期待』の典型例。",[174,177,180,183,186,189,192,195,198,201,204,207,210,213],{"label":175,"url":176},"Marvell Q4 FY2025 Results (SEC 8-K Ex-99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001835632/000183563225000051/q425_8kx212025ex-991.htm",{"label":178,"url":179},"CNBC: Marvell shares plunge after Q4 FY2025 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/marvell-shares-plunge-after-q4-2025-earnings-report.html",{"label":181,"url":182},"Marvell Q1 FY2026 Results (SEC 8-K Ex-99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001835632/000183563225000115/q126_8kx532025ex-991.htm",{"label":184,"url":185},"Marvell IR: Q1 FY2026 Financial Results","https://investor.marvell.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/95/marvell-technology-inc-reports-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2026-financial-results",{"label":187,"url":188},"Marvell Q2 FY2026 Results (SEC 8-K Ex-99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1835632/000183563225000187/q226_8kx822025ex-991.htm",{"label":190,"url":191},"CNBC: Marvell stock slumps on Q2 FY2026 guidance","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/29/marvell-stock-earnings-guidance.html",{"label":193,"url":194},"Marvell Q3 FY2026 Results (SEC 8-K Ex-99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1835632/000183563225000193/q326_8kx1112025ex-991.htm",{"label":196,"url":197},"Marvell Q4 FY2026 Results (SEC 8-K Ex-99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001835632/000183563226000006/q426_8kx1312026ex-991.htm",{"label":199,"url":200},"Marvell Q1 FY2027 Results (SEC 8-K Ex-99.1)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001835632/000183563226000014/q127_8kx522026ex-991.htm",{"label":202,"url":203},"Reuters/Yahoo: Marvell Q1 FY2027 earnings beat & guidance raise","https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/marvell-q1-2027-earnings-beat-115148669.html",{"label":205,"url":206},"X @Tradinguru55: Q1 FY26 guide $1.875B vs $1.869B cons / EPS $0.61 vs $0.60 cons（次Qガイド予想）","https://x.com/Tradinguru55/status/1897609554025693618",{"label":208,"url":209},"X @tenet_research: Q2 FY26 guide Rev $1.90-2.10B vs $1.98B Est / EPS Est $0.66（次Qガイド予想）","https://x.com/tenet_research/status/1928184325025190322",{"label":211,"url":212},"X @tenet_research: Q4 FY26 guide Rev $2.09-2.31B vs $2.18B cons / EPS $0.74-0.84 vs $0.79（次Qガイド予想）","https://x.com/tenet_research/status/1995964960590205010",{"label":214,"url":215},"X @PennyboisTrades: Q1 FY27 guide $2.4B vs $2.28B Wall St / EPS $0.79 vs $0.74 cons（次Qガイド予想）","https://x.com/PennyboisTrades/status/2029754834035818627",{"date":217,"close":218},"2026-06-18","$310.58","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-MRVL.png?title=MRVL%20Marvell%20Technology%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=8923f3fa98bab57d",1782528865016]