[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":238},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-MU-FY26Q3":3,"og-beat-monitoring-MU-FY26Q3":237},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":170,"highlightQuarter":181,"highlightDescription":182,"sources":183,"latestStock":208,"forwardForecast":211},"MU-FY26Q3","Micron Technology（FY26 Q3 予測ワークシート）","Micron Technology の FY26 Q3 決算前シミュレーション用ページ。既存の MU ビートモニタリングをコピーし、2026年6月末予定の Q3 FY26 について、売上実績・EPS実績・次Q売上ガイダンス・次Q EPSガイダンス・予想株価を後から入力できる未入力カラムを追加した。SK hynix / Samsung の 2026 Q1 で確認された ASP 上昇とメモリ利益率の急拡大を、Micron の Q3 予測にどう反映するかを検証するための作業台。","EPS ($, 非GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,37,63,89,115,141],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":33},"Q2 FY25","2025/3/20","HBM売上$10億超え達成、Q3ガイドはコンセンサス上振れだが株価-8.0%",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$8.05 B","$7.93 B",1.6,38,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$1.56","$1.43",9.1,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$8.80 B","$8.50 B",3.5,{"company":30,"consensus":31,"beatPct":32},"$1.57","$1.47",6.8,{"reportClose":34,"nextClose":35,"changePct":36},"$103.00","$94.72",-8,{"quarter":38,"reportDate":39,"event":40,"revenue":41,"eps":46,"guidance":50,"stock":59},"Q3 FY25","2025/6/25","Data Center売上前年比倍増、HBM売上前Q比+50%(run rate $6B超) — AIメモリ需要が牽引",{"actual":42,"consensus":43,"beatPct":44,"yoyPct":45},"$9.30 B","$8.87 B",4.9,36.6,{"actual":47,"consensus":48,"beatPct":49},"$1.91","$1.60",19.4,{"revenue":51,"eps":55},{"company":52,"consensus":53,"beatPct":54},"$10.70 B","$9.90 B",8.1,{"company":56,"consensus":57,"beatPct":58},"$2.50","$2.03",23.2,{"reportClose":60,"nextClose":61,"changePct":62},"$127.25","$126.00",-1,{"quarter":64,"reportDate":65,"event":66,"revenue":67,"eps":72,"guidance":76,"stock":85},"Q4 FY25","2025/9/23","AI HBM需要本格化、Q1ガイドEPS+21.0%の上振れ",{"actual":68,"consensus":69,"beatPct":70,"yoyPct":71},"$11.32 B","$11.22 B",0.9,46,{"actual":73,"consensus":74,"beatPct":75},"$3.03","$2.86",5.9,{"revenue":77,"eps":81},{"company":78,"consensus":79,"beatPct":80},"$12.50 B","$11.94 B",4.7,{"company":82,"consensus":83,"beatPct":84},"$3.75","$3.10",21,{"reportClose":86,"nextClose":87,"changePct":88},"$166.41","$161.71",-2.8,{"quarter":90,"reportDate":91,"event":92,"revenue":93,"eps":98,"guidance":102,"stock":111},"Q1 FY26","2025/12/17","売上+6.3%・EPS+21.3%、Q2ガイドはEPS+87.5%の異常上振れで構造転換確信",{"actual":94,"consensus":95,"beatPct":96,"yoyPct":97},"$13.64 B","$12.83 B",6.3,56.7,{"actual":99,"consensus":100,"beatPct":101},"$4.78","$3.94",21.3,{"revenue":103,"eps":107},{"company":104,"consensus":105,"beatPct":106},"$18.70 B","$14.23 B",31.4,{"company":108,"consensus":109,"beatPct":110},"$8.42","$4.49",87.5,{"reportClose":112,"nextClose":113,"changePct":114},"$225.52","$248.55",10.2,{"quarter":116,"reportDate":117,"event":118,"revenue":119,"eps":124,"guidance":128,"stock":137},"Q2 FY26","2026/3/18","売上+18.9%・EPS+31.0%・Q3ガイドEPS+59.2% トリプル大幅ビート、YoY+196%",{"actual":120,"consensus":121,"beatPct":122,"yoyPct":123},"$23.86 B","$20.07 B",18.9,196.3,{"actual":125,"consensus":126,"beatPct":127},"$12.20","$9.31",31,{"revenue":129,"eps":133},{"company":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$33.50 B","$24.29 B",37.9,{"company":134,"consensus":135,"beatPct":136},"$19.15","$12.03",59.2,{"reportClose":138,"nextClose":139,"changePct":140},"$461.73","$444.27",-3.8,{"quarter":142,"reportDate":143,"isForecast":144,"event":145,"revenue":146,"eps":151,"guidance":155,"stock":164},"Q3 FY26","2026/6月末予定",true,"私の予測: 売上$36.2B、非GAAP EPS$21.80。会社Q3ガイド$33.5B/$19.15と市場予想$33.82B/$19.31を上回るが、株価は既に強く織り込んでいるため反応は+9%前後に抑える。",{"actual":147,"consensus":148,"beatPct":149,"yoyPct":150},"$36.20 B","$33.82 B",7,289.2,{"actual":152,"consensus":153,"beatPct":154},"$21.80","$19.31",12.9,{"revenue":156,"eps":160},{"company":157,"consensus":158,"beatPct":159},"$43.00 B","$39.63 B",8.5,{"company":161,"consensus":162,"beatPct":163},"$26.50","$23.00",15.2,{"reportClose":165,"nextClose":165,"changePct":166,"predictedClose":167,"predictedChangePct":168,"predictedPer":169},"未入力",null,"$1,090.00",9.4,"8.6x",[171,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,179,180],"このページは FY26 Q3 決算前の予測ワークシート。Q3 FY26 列の売上実績/EPS実績/次Qガイド/予想株価は、実績発表前の筆者予測値。","Micron は会計年度が8月末締め (FY2025 = 2024/9〜2025/8、FY2026 = 2025/9〜2026/8)。2026/3/18発表の Q2 FY26 で、会社は Q3 FY26 売上 $33.5B ± $0.75B、Non-GAAP EPS $19.15 ± $0.40 を提示した。","Q3 FY26 の市場予想は 2026-06-05 時点の Koyfin 系データ（売上$33.82B、EPS$19.31）を採用。Q4 FY26 の次Qガイド比較用コンセンサスは売上$39.63B、EPS$23.00。","将来4四半期の筆者予測は Q4 FY26 $43.0B/$26.50、Q1 FY27 $48.5B/$31.00、Q2 FY27 $52.0B/$33.50、Q3 FY27 $54.0B/$35.00。4Q合計EPSは$127.00。","予測根拠: 1) Micron Q2 FY26 の会社ガイドが売上$33.5B・粗利率約81%・EPS$19.15と、すでに市場予想を大きく上回っている。2) SK hynix 2026 Q1 は売上がコンセンサス比+3%程度でも営業利益率72%・EPS大幅上振れとなり、売上より利益の感応度が大きいことを示した。3) Samsung 2026 Q1 も Memory がASP上昇とAI向け高付加価値品で過去最高売上・利益を出しており、DRAM/HBM/NAND全体の価格とミックス改善が同時に進んでいる。4) Micron はQ2時点でCloud Memory、Core Data Center、Mobile/Client、Auto/Embeddedの全BUで粗利率が大きく改善しており、Q3もHBM/DDR5/AI SSDの比率上昇で会社ガイド粗利率81%を上回る余地がある。","モデルの置き方: Q3 FY26は売上を市場予想$33.82Bから+7.0%上振れの$36.2Bに置き、粗利率を会社ガイド約81%から約84%へ引き上げる。OpExは約$1.45B、非GAAP希薄化後株数は約11.5億株とし、EPSを$21.80にした。Q4以降は、HBM供給制約と通常DRAM/SSDのASP上昇が続くが、伸び率は徐々に鈍化すると見て、売上QoQを+19%→+13%→+7%→+4%、EPS QoQを+22%→+17%→+8%→+4%へ逓減させた。","予想EPS $21.80 は、売上$36.2B、非GAAP粗利率84%前後、OpEx約$1.45B、非GAAP希薄化後株数約11.5億株を前提にした概算。売上+7.0%ビートに対しEPS+12.9%ビートになる、営業レバレッジ重視のシナリオ。","予想PERは、決算後予想株価$1,090 ÷ 将来4四半期EPS合計$127.00 = 約8.6x。","実績・会社ガイダンスは Micron 公式IR、コンセンサスは LSEG / FactSet / Investing.com / StreetInsider / MarketScreener 経由の事前コンセンサス代表値。株価は Yahoo / StockAnalysis / Fintel / finance snapshot を照合。","ガイダンス上振れ率 = 会社提示midpoint vs 事前アナリスト予想midpoint。","Q3 FY26 予測","私のベース予測は Q3 FY26 売上$36.2B、非GAAP EPS$21.80、Q4 FY26 売上ガイド$43.0B、EPSガイド$26.50。さらに決算発表後に見る向こう4四半期を、Q4 FY26 $43.0B/$26.50、Q1 FY27 $48.5B/$31.00、Q2 FY27 $52.0B/$33.50、Q3 FY27 $54.0B/$35.00 に修正した。4四半期EPS合計は$127.00。決算後予想株価$1,090で割ると予想PERは約8.6x。\n\n予測の根拠は、売上数量よりも粗利率と製品ミックスの改善を重く見ること。Micron自身のQ3ガイドは売上$33.5B・粗利率約81%・EPS$19.15で、すでに市場予想を大きく上回っている。そこに、SK hynix 2026 Q1の売上+3%程度の小幅上振れに対する営業利益率72%・EPS大幅上振れ、Samsung 2026 Q1のMemory ASP上昇と過去最高利益を重ねると、メモリサイクルは『売上より利益が大きく跳ねる局面』に入っていると見る。MicronもQ2時点で全BUの粗利率が急改善しており、Q3はHBM、DDR5、AI向けSSDのミックス上昇で会社ガイド粗利率81%を約84%まで上回ると仮定した。\n\nモデル上は、Q3売上を市場予想$33.82Bから+7.0%上振れの$36.2B、OpExを約$1.45B、希薄化後株数を約11.5億株に置き、EPSを$21.80とした。Q4以降は供給制約とASP上昇は続くが、伸び率は徐々に鈍化すると見て、売上QoQを+19%→+13%→+7%→+4%、EPS QoQを+22%→+17%→+8%→+4%に逓減させた。弱点は、足元株価が既に急騰済みで、歴史的好決算でもwhisperに届かなければ反応が鈍いこと。そのため株価反応は大幅ビートでも+9%前後に抑えた。",[184,187,190,193,196,199,202,205],{"label":185,"url":186},"Micron Reports Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Results","https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-second-quarter-fiscal-2026",{"label":188,"url":189},"Korea JoongAng Daily: SK hynix posts fivefold profit surge in Q1, beats estimates","https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-04-23/business/industry/SK-hynix-posts-fivefold-profit-surge-in-Q1-beats-estimates/2575839",{"label":191,"url":192},"Samsung Electronics Announces First Quarter 2026 Results","https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-first-quarter-2026-results",{"label":194,"url":195},"Micron Reports Fiscal Q2 2025 Financial Results","https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-second-quarter-fiscal-2025",{"label":197,"url":198},"CNBC: Micron Q2 FY2025 earnings (LSEG cons)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/micron-mu-q2-earnings-2025.html",{"label":200,"url":201},"Nasdaq: Micron Q3 FY2025 results","https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-third-quarter-fiscal-2025-2025-06-25",{"label":203,"url":204},"CNBC: Micron Q3 FY2025 earnings (LSEG cons)","https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/micron-mu-q3-2025-earnings-report.html",{"label":206,"url":207},"Micron Reports Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Results","https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-first-quarter-fiscal-2026",{"date":209,"close":210},"2026-06-05","$996.00",{"price":212,"currency":213,"snapshotDate":209,"note":214,"quarters":215},1090,"USD","筆者予測。決算後予想株価$1,090 ÷ 発表後4Q EPS合計$127.00 = 予想PER約8.6x。",[216,222,227,232],{"label":217,"fy":218,"fq":219,"revenueB":220,"eps":221},"4Q FY2026",2026,4,43,26.5,{"label":223,"fy":224,"fq":225,"revenueB":226,"eps":127},"1Q FY2027",2027,1,48.5,{"label":228,"fy":224,"fq":229,"revenueB":230,"eps":231},"2Q FY2027",2,52,33.5,{"label":233,"fy":224,"fq":234,"revenueB":235,"eps":236},"3Q FY2027",3,54,35,"https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-MU-FY26Q3.png?title=MU-FY26Q3%20Micron%20Technology%EF%BC%88FY26%20Q3%20%E4%BA%88%E6%B8%AC%E3%83%AF%E3%83%BC%E3%82%AF%E3%82%B7%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%EF%BC%89%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=a32372e1be33da7e",1783124606221]