[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":195},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-SNDK":3,"og-beat-monitoring-SNDK":194},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":152,"highlightQuarter":112,"highlightDescription":159,"sources":160,"latestStock":191},"SNDK","Sandisk","Western Digitalから2025年2月21日にスピンオフし、2月24日にNasdaq単独上場したNANDフラッシュ専業企業。上場直後のQ3 FY25は需要低迷とのれん減損18.3億ドルで非GAAP赤字（株価約$35）だったが、供給規律と値上げが効き始め、Q1 FY26（2025/11）にデータセンター向けNAND需要が点火。Q2 FY26は売上$3.03B・EPS$6.20、Q3 FY26は売上$5.95B（前年比+251%）・EPS$23.41とコンセンサスを売上+27%/EPS+61%上回り、次QガイダンスもFactSet予想を+21%上回る$8B中心へ引き上げ。AI/HBFと複数年確約契約（New Business Model）で評価軸がメモリ市況株から構造成長株へ転換し、株価は上場後約47倍（$35→$1,641）に膨張した。","EPS ($, 非GAAP 希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,60,85,111,137],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q3 FY25","2025/5/7","単独上場後の初決算。売上$1.70B（前年比-1%、コンセンサス約$1.63Bを+4.5%）・非GAAP EPS-$0.30（予想-$0.39に対し損失が$0.09縮小）。のれん減損18.3億ドルでGAAPは大幅赤字。供給削減と値上げ開始を表明。上場直後でコンセンサスが薄く、数値は決算ビート逆算ベース。株価翌日+4.8%",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$1.70 B","$1.63 B",4.5,-1,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"-$0.30","-$0.39",null,{"revenue":25,"eps":28},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":23},"$1.80 B","n/a",{"company":29,"consensus":27,"beatPct":23},"$0.03",{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$34.97","$36.66",4.8,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":43,"guidance":47,"stock":56},"Q4 FY25","2025/8/14","売上$1.90B（前年比+8%、QoQ+12%、コンセンサス$1.82Bを+4.4%）・非GAAP EPS$0.29（予想$0.05を大幅超）。BiCS8ランプとHBF（High Bandwidth Flash）でAI推論向けの新パラダイムを訴求。次Qガイドは売上が予想超だがEPS midpointが予想をやや下回り、好決算でも株価は翌日-4.6%と売られた",{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":42},"$1.90 B","$1.82 B",4.4,8,{"actual":44,"consensus":45,"beatPct":46},"$0.29","$0.05",480,{"revenue":48,"eps":52},{"company":49,"consensus":50,"beatPct":51},"$2.15 B","$2.00 B",7.5,{"company":53,"consensus":54,"beatPct":55},"$0.80","$0.86",-7,{"reportClose":57,"nextClose":58,"changePct":59},"$46.68","$44.54",-4.6,{"quarter":61,"reportDate":62,"event":63,"revenue":64,"eps":68,"guidance":72,"stock":81},"Q1 FY26","2025/11/6","売上$2.31B（前年比+23%、QoQ+21%、コンセンサス$2.15Bを+7.4%）・非GAAP EPS$1.22（FactSet予想$0.88を+38.6%）で大幅上振れ。データセンター売上QoQ+26%、ハイパースケーラー2社が認定中・5社と協業。ネットキャッシュ・ポジティブ達成。株価は翌日+15.3%と急騰",{"actual":65,"consensus":49,"beatPct":66,"yoyPct":67},"$2.31 B",7.4,23,{"actual":69,"consensus":70,"beatPct":71},"$1.22","$0.88",38.6,{"revenue":73,"eps":77},{"company":74,"consensus":75,"beatPct":76},"$2.60 B","$2.35 B",10.6,{"company":78,"consensus":79,"beatPct":80},"$3.20","$1.80",77.8,{"reportClose":82,"nextClose":83,"changePct":84},"$207.69","$239.48",15.3,{"quarter":86,"reportDate":87,"event":88,"revenue":89,"eps":94,"guidance":98,"stock":107},"Q2 FY26","2026/1/29","売上$3.03B（前年比+61%、QoQ+31%、コンセンサス$2.67Bを+13.5%）・非GAAP EPS$6.20（予想$3.49を+77.7%）。データセンター売上QoQ+64%、AIインフラ・セミカスタム向けが牽引。次Qガイドを売上$4.4〜4.8B・EPS$12〜14へ異例の大幅引き上げ。株価翌日+6.9%",{"actual":90,"consensus":91,"beatPct":92,"yoyPct":93},"$3.03 B","$2.67 B",13.5,61,{"actual":95,"consensus":96,"beatPct":97},"$6.20","$3.49",77.7,{"revenue":99,"eps":103},{"company":100,"consensus":101,"beatPct":102},"$4.60 B","$2.92 B",57.5,{"company":104,"consensus":105,"beatPct":106},"$13.00","$4.21",208.8,{"reportClose":108,"nextClose":109,"changePct":110},"$539.30","$576.25",6.9,{"quarter":112,"reportDate":113,"event":114,"revenue":115,"eps":120,"guidance":124,"stock":133},"Q3 FY26","2026/4/30","売上$5.95B（前年比+251%、QoQ+97%、コンセンサス$4.70Bを+26.6%）・非GAAP EPS$23.41（予想$14.50を+61.4%）の決定的ビート。データセンターQoQ+233%、粗利78%超。$42Bの複数年確約契約（New Business Model）を計5本締結。次Qガイドを売上$7.75〜8.25B（中心$8.0B、コンセンサス$6.6Bを+21%）・EPS$30〜33へ。$6Bの自社株買いも発表。株価翌日+8.3%",{"actual":116,"consensus":117,"beatPct":118,"yoyPct":119},"$5.95 B","$4.70 B",26.6,251,{"actual":121,"consensus":122,"beatPct":123},"$23.41","$14.50",61.4,{"revenue":125,"eps":129},{"company":126,"consensus":127,"beatPct":128},"$8.00 B","$6.60 B",21.2,{"company":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$31.50","$23.20",35.8,{"reportClose":134,"nextClose":135,"changePct":136},"$1,096.51","$1,187.00",8.3,{"quarter":138,"reportDate":139,"isForecast":140,"event":141,"revenue":142,"eps":144,"guidance":146,"stock":151},"Q4 FY26","2026/8/13",true,"2026/8/13 AMC 発表予定。2026/6/22時点のアナリスト予想は当期売上 $8.28 B / 非GAAP EPS $33.72、次Q (1Q 2027) 売上 $10.25 B / EPS $41.38（Koyfin 集約コンセンサス）。",{"actual":27,"consensus":143,"beatPct":23,"yoyPct":23},"$8.28 B",{"actual":27,"consensus":145,"beatPct":23},"$33.75",{"revenue":147,"eps":149},{"company":27,"consensus":148,"beatPct":23},"$10.25 B",{"company":27,"consensus":150,"beatPct":23},"$41.38",{"reportClose":27,"nextClose":27,"changePct":23},[153,154,155,156,157,158],"Q4 FY26（2026/8/13 発表予定）はアナリスト予想のみ先行入力。当期 売上$8.28 B / EPS$33.72、次Q (1Q 2027) 売上$10.25 B / EPS$41.38 はいずれも 2026/6/22 時点で参照可能な Koyfin 集約コンセンサス。会社ガイダンス・実績・反応は発表後に更新する。","会計年度は6月30日に最も近い金曜日締め（FY2025は2025/6/27、FY2026は2026/7/3、Q1 FY26は14週）。スピンオフ完了2025/2/21、Nasdaq上場2025/2/24。","実績・会社ガイダンスはSandisk公式8-K(EX-99.1)/SEC EDGARで一次確認。コンセンサスは X(Grok検索)で各決算当日の複数投稿（FactSet/LSEG等を引用）を相互照合し、ソース間で大きくブレないことを確認した代表値を採用。Q1 FY26はFactSetコンセンサス（売上$2.15B/EPS$0.88）を4ソース以上で確認（当初の$2.12B/$0.58表記を訂正）。Q4 FY25は3ソースが売上$1.82B/EPS$0.05で一致。","コンセンサスのソース間レンジ: Q2 FY26 EPSは$3.12〜3.54（最多$3.49を採用）、Q3 FY26 EPSは$14.42〜14.66（中心$14.50を採用）、Q3 FY26次QガイドのEPS予想は$22.4〜23.4（中心$23.2を採用）。各投稿の参照ソース差による小幅な揺れの範囲。Q3 FY25は上場直後でカバレッジが薄く、コンセンサスは『$1.70Bが$73.1Mビート／EPSが$0.09ビート』という決算リリース文言からの逆算（単一ソース・信頼度中）。EPSが負（-$0.30 vs -$0.39）の四半期は損失縮小のため上振れ率を割愛（null）。","Q3 FY25発表時のQ4 FY25ガイダンス（売上$1.75-1.85B mid $1.80B / EPS$-0.10〜$0.15 mid $0.03）の事前コンセンサスは2026/6/26 X-search（Grok）で 2025/5/7-5/20 の決算速報投稿を再走査したが「Q4 FY25 revenue consensus $X B / EPS consensus $Y」を3ソース以上で明示引用する投稿が集まらず採用見送り（n/a 維持）。上場直後でカバレッジ薄、当時は会社ガイダンス自体が「初の単独ガイダンス」として注目されたため、ガイドに対するコンセンサスの議論がほぼ存在しなかった。","ガイダンス上振れ率 = （会社ガイダンスmidpoint − その時点のコンセンサス）÷ コンセンサス × 100。実績beatPct = （実績 − コンセンサス）÷ コンセンサス × 100。Q4 FY25のEPS実績ビート率（+480%）はコンセンサスが$0.05と僅少なための見かけ上の高倍率。","Q3 FY26（2026/4/30発表）が構造転換の決定打。売上$5.95B（前年比+251%、QoQ+97%、コンセンサス$4.70Bを+26.6%）、非GAAP EPS$23.41（コンセンサス$14.50を+61.4%）と桁違いのビート。粗利率は78.4%まで急騰し、もはやNAND市況の谷山ではなくAIメモリ供給制約下のプライシングパワーを示した。$42B規模の複数年の数量・価格を確約するNew Business Model契約を計5本締結し、次Qガイドを売上$8.0B中心（コンセンサス$6.6Bを+21%）・EPS$31.5中心（予想$23.2を+36%）へ引き上げ、$6Bの自社株買いも発表。市況連動のメモリ株から、契約に裏打ちされた構造成長株へと評価軸が切り替わった四半期。上場直後の$35から足元$1,641まで約47倍。",[161,164,167,170,173,176,179,182,185,188],{"label":162,"url":163},"Q3 FY25 8-K EX-99.1 (SEC, 2025/5/7)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000202355425000021/sndkq3fy25ex991-pressrelea.htm",{"label":165,"url":166},"Q4 FY25 8-K EX-99.1 (SEC, 2025/8/14)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000119312525180782/d926236dex991.htm",{"label":168,"url":169},"Q1 FY26 8-K EX-99.1 (SEC, 2025/11/6)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828025050180/sndkq1fy26ex991-pressrelea.htm",{"label":171,"url":172},"Q2 FY26 8-K EX-99.1 (SEC, 2026/1/29)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026004121/sndkq2fy26ex991-pressrelea.htm",{"label":174,"url":175},"Q3 FY26 8-K EX-99.1 (SEC, 2026/4/30)","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2023554/000162828026028879/sndkq3-26ex991xpressrelease.htm",{"label":177,"url":178},"Q1 FY26 コンセンサス（FactSet $0.88 / 売上$2.15B 言及, X/@VadymFastInvest）","https://x.com/VadymFastInvest/status/1986542622148632959",{"label":180,"url":181},"Q1 FY26 EPS$1.22 vs $0.89 Expected / 売上$2.31B vs $2.15B（X/@InvestingDesk）","https://x.com/InvestingDesk/status/1986544894698266821",{"label":183,"url":184},"Q2 FY26 EPS$6.20 vs Est$3.49 / 売上$3.03B vs $2.67B・Q3ガイド vs $2.92B（X/@wallstengine）","https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2016983139344929046",{"label":186,"url":187},"Q3 FY26 EPS$23.41 vs Est$14.42 / 売上$6.0B vs $4.7B・Q4ガイド vs $6.3B（X/@wallstengine）","https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2049944799063798037",{"label":189,"url":190},"SNDK 株価ヒストリー・時価総額 (StockAnalysis.com)","https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndk/",{"date":192,"close":193},"2026-06-18","$2184.75","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-SNDK.png?title=SNDK%20Sandisk%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=b194c92dd0c8bf72",1782528864582]