[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":215},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-STX":3,"og-beat-monitoring-STX":214},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":175,"highlightQuarter":133,"highlightDescription":182,"sources":183,"latestStock":211},"STX","Seagate Technology","HDD世界最大手の一角。データセンター向けニアラインHDDがAI起点のデータ爆発で需要急増し、HAMR（熱アシスト磁気記録／Mosaicプラットフォーム）の量産ランプが構造転換を牽引。FY25中盤までは売上20%台YoY・EPS小幅ビートだったが、FY26に入りニアラインがカレンダー2027までほぼフルアロケーション、Q3 FY26は売上+44%YoY・非GAAP EPS$4.10で大幅ビート。会社は通年売上成長目標を『低〜中teens』から『最低20%』へ引き上げ、粗利率は36%→47%へ拡大。株価は2026年に入り$100台から$880超へ約8倍化し、時価総額は約$200Bに達した。","EPS ($, 非GAAP)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,33,57,81,107,132,158],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":19,"guidance":23,"stock":29},"Q2 FY25","2025/1/21","売上$2.33B（前年比+49.5%）・非GAAP EPS$2.03。クラウド向けニアライン需要で粗利率35.5%、EPSはコンセンサス上回る",{"actual":16,"consensus":16,"beatPct":17,"yoyPct":18},"$2.33 B",-0.2,49.5,{"actual":20,"consensus":21,"beatPct":22},"$2.03","$1.86",9.1,{"revenue":24,"eps":27},{"company":25,"consensus":25,"beatPct":26},"$2.10 B",0,{"company":28,"consensus":28,"beatPct":26},"$1.70",{"reportClose":30,"nextClose":31,"changePct":32},"$101.25","$108.18",6.8,{"quarter":34,"reportDate":35,"event":36,"revenue":37,"eps":42,"guidance":46,"stock":53},"Q3 FY25","2025/4/29","売上$2.16B（前年比+30.5%）・非GAAP EPS$1.90でガイダンス上限。粗利率36.2%へ拡大",{"actual":38,"consensus":39,"beatPct":40,"yoyPct":41},"$2.16 B","$2.14 B",0.9,30.5,{"actual":43,"consensus":44,"beatPct":45},"$1.90","$1.75",8.6,{"revenue":47,"eps":49},{"company":48,"consensus":48,"beatPct":26},"$2.40 B",{"company":50,"consensus":51,"beatPct":52},"$2.40","$2.08",15.4,{"reportClose":54,"nextClose":55,"changePct":56},"$81.60","$91.03",11.6,{"quarter":58,"reportDate":59,"event":60,"revenue":61,"eps":65,"guidance":69,"stock":77},"Q4 FY25","2025/7/29","売上$2.44B（前年比+29.5%）・非GAAP EPS$2.59でガイド上限。通年FY25売上$9.10B（+39%）、粗利率は過去最高更新",{"actual":62,"consensus":48,"beatPct":63,"yoyPct":64},"$2.44 B",1.8,29.5,{"actual":66,"consensus":67,"beatPct":68},"$2.59","$2.45",5.7,{"revenue":70,"eps":73},{"company":71,"consensus":48,"beatPct":72},"$2.50 B",4.2,{"company":74,"consensus":75,"beatPct":76},"$2.30","$2.34",-1.7,{"reportClose":78,"nextClose":79,"changePct":80},"$152.68","$147.42",-3.4,{"quarter":82,"reportDate":83,"event":84,"revenue":85,"eps":90,"guidance":94,"stock":103},"Q1 FY26","2025/10/28","売上$2.63B（前年比+21.3%）・非GAAP EPS$2.61でガイド上限超え。粗利率40.1%（記録）。Mosaic HAMRを5大CSPで認定、月100万台超出荷",{"actual":86,"consensus":87,"beatPct":88,"yoyPct":89},"$2.63 B","$2.47 B",6.4,21.3,{"actual":91,"consensus":92,"beatPct":93},"$2.61","$2.42",7.9,{"revenue":95,"eps":99},{"company":96,"consensus":97,"beatPct":98},"$2.70 B","$2.55 B",5.9,{"company":100,"consensus":101,"beatPct":102},"$2.75","$2.67",3,{"reportClose":104,"nextClose":105,"changePct":106},"$223.00","$265.62",19.1,{"quarter":108,"reportDate":109,"event":110,"revenue":111,"eps":116,"guidance":120,"stock":129},"Q2 FY26","2026/1/27","売上$2.83B（前年比+21.5%）・非GAAP EPS$3.11。粗利・営業利益・EPSすべて過去最高。HAMRランプとデータセンター需要の持続性を強調",{"actual":112,"consensus":113,"beatPct":114,"yoyPct":115},"$2.83 B","$2.73 B",3.5,21.5,{"actual":117,"consensus":118,"beatPct":119},"$3.11","$2.77",12.3,{"revenue":121,"eps":125},{"company":122,"consensus":123,"beatPct":124},"$2.90 B","$2.78 B",4.3,{"company":126,"consensus":127,"beatPct":128},"$3.40","$3.00",13.3,{"reportClose":130,"nextClose":131,"changePct":106},"$371.76","$442.93",{"quarter":133,"reportDate":134,"event":135,"revenue":136,"eps":141,"guidance":145,"stock":154},"Q3 FY26","2026/4/28","売上$3.11B（前年比+44.1%）・非GAAP EPS$4.10で大幅ビート。粗利率47%（記録）、FCF約$1B。通年売上成長目標を『最低20%』へ引き上げ&レイズ。ニアラインはカレンダー2027までほぼフルアロケーション",{"actual":137,"consensus":138,"beatPct":139,"yoyPct":140},"$3.11 B","$2.96 B",5.1,44.1,{"actual":142,"consensus":143,"beatPct":144},"$4.10","$3.51",16.8,{"revenue":146,"eps":150},{"company":147,"consensus":148,"beatPct":149},"$3.45 B","$3.10 B",11.3,{"company":151,"consensus":152,"beatPct":153},"$5.00","$3.95",26.6,{"reportClose":155,"nextClose":156,"changePct":157},"$579.03","$643.30",11.1,{"quarter":159,"reportDate":160,"isForecast":161,"event":162,"revenue":163,"eps":167,"guidance":169,"stock":174},"Q4 FY26","2026/7/16",true,"2026/7/16 AMC 発表予定。2026/6/22時点のアナリスト予想は当期売上 $3.48 B / 非GAAP EPS $5.08、次Q (1Q 2027) 売上 $3.71 B / EPS $5.66（Koyfin 集約コンセンサス）。",{"actual":164,"consensus":165,"beatPct":166,"yoyPct":166},"n/a","$3.48 B",null,{"actual":164,"consensus":168,"beatPct":166},"$5.08",{"revenue":170,"eps":172},{"company":164,"consensus":171,"beatPct":166},"$3.71 B",{"company":164,"consensus":173,"beatPct":166},"$5.66",{"reportClose":164,"nextClose":164,"changePct":166},[176,177,178,179,180,181],"Q4 FY26（2026/7/16 発表予定）はアナリスト予想のみ先行入力。当期 売上$3.48 B / EPS$5.08、次Q (1Q 2027) 売上$3.71 B / EPS$5.66 はいずれも 2026/6/22 時点で参照可能な Koyfin 集約コンセンサス。会社ガイダンス・実績・反応は発表後に更新する。","会計年度末は6月末近辺（FY25末=2025/6/27。FQ1=9月期、FQ2=12月期、FQ3=3月期、FQ4=6月期）。決算は引け後発表。","実績・ガイダンスはSeagate公式IR/SEC EDGAR 8-K一次資料。コンセンサスはMarketBeat(LSEG/Zacks系)。株価はStockAnalysis.com/Yahoo Finance。","ガイダンス上振れ率 = 会社の次Q売上ガイドmidpoint ÷ ガイダンス提示時点の市場コンセンサス売上 − 1。Q2/Q3 FY25の次Qコンセンサスは概算（信頼度中）。EPSの次Qガイドは会社midpointのみ（同時点コンセンサス未取得のためn/a）。","EPSは非GAAP希薄化後。実績beatPct = （実績 − コンセンサス）÷ コンセンサス。Seagateは伝統的に通年数値ガイドを出さず、Q3 FY26の『最低20%成長目標』が唯一の通年方向性のため通年ガイド欄は設けていない。","次Q EPS ガイダンスのコンセンサス（Q2 FY25→Q3 FY25: $1.70 / Q3 FY25→Q4 FY25: $2.08 / Q4 FY25→Q1 FY26: $2.34 / Q1 FY26→Q2 FY26: $2.67 / Q2 FY26→Q3 FY26: $3.00 / Q3 FY26→Q4 FY26: $3.95）は、各決算発表日（±数日）周辺の X (Grok)サーチで複数のearnings 投稿（@everytimeicash, @MartyChargin, @CorleoneDon77, @tenet_research, @TheValueist, @crcuitbreaker, @marketsday, @Tradinguru55, @BankTheTrade 等）から FactSet / Bloomberg コンセンサスを収集し中央値を採用した（各5〜8件）。","Q3 FY26（2026/4/28発表）が構造転換を最も明確に示す。売上$3.11B（+44%YoY、コンセンサス$2.96Bを+5.1%）、非GAAP EPS$4.10（コンセンサス$3.51を+16.8%）と全項目で大幅ビート。粗利率は47%へ過去最高更新（前年同期36.2%から+10.8pt）。決め手は次Qガイドで、売上$3.45B（コンセンサス約$3.10Bを約+11%上回る）・非GAAP EPS$5.00と急加速を示し、さらに通年売上成長目標を『低〜中teens』から『最低20%』へ引き上げた典型的なビート&レイズ。市場はこれを構造転換の確証と受け止め株価は決算翌日+11.1%（$579→$643）。FY25は売上ほぼインライン・EPS小幅ビートだったが、FY26後半でビート幅が拡大し評価軸が「HDD市況株」から「AIデータセンターのストレージ供給制約銘柄」へ切り替わった。ニアラインがカレンダー2027までほぼフルアロケーションという需要可視性が裏付け。",[184,187,190,193,196,199,202,205,208],{"label":185,"url":186},"SEC 8-K Q3 FY26 プレスリリース","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000084/stxq32026pressreleasefinan.htm",{"label":188,"url":189},"SEC 8-K Q2 FY26 プレスリリース","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000016/stxq22026pressreleasefinan.htm",{"label":191,"url":192},"SEC 8-K Q1 FY26 プレスリリース","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778925000283/stxq12026pressreleasefinan.htm",{"label":194,"url":195},"SEC 8-K Q4 FY25 プレスリリース","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778925000148/stxq42025pressreleasefinan.htm",{"label":197,"url":198},"SEC 8-K Q3 FY25 プレスリリース","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778925000070/stxq32025pressreleasefinan.htm",{"label":200,"url":201},"SEC 8-K Q2 FY25 プレスリリース","https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778925000006/stxq22025pressreleasefinan.htm",{"label":203,"url":204},"MarketBeat STX Earnings (コンセンサス)","https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/STX/earnings/",{"label":206,"url":207},"StockAnalysis.com STX 株価","https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/stx/",{"label":209,"url":210},"TIKR: Seagate Q3 構造成長解説","https://www.tikr.com/blog/seagate-stock-rose-11-on-q3-earnings-why-the-structural-growth-story-has-barely-begun",{"date":212,"close":213},"2026-06-18","$1070.23","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-STX.png?title=STX%20Seagate%20Technology%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=2de1d1661adb091d",1782528864659]