[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":382},["ShallowReactive",2],{"triple-beat-TSM":3,"og-beat-monitoring-TSM":381},{"ticker":4,"name":5,"description":6,"epsLabel":7,"guidanceLabel":8,"stockLabel":9,"quarters":10,"tableNotes":284,"highlightQuarter":248,"highlightDescription":295,"sources":296,"latestStock":378},"TSM","Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing","世界最大の半導体受託製造（ファウンドリ）専業企業。NVIDIA・Apple・AMD・Broadcomなど大手ファブレスからAI/HPC/スマホ向け先端ロジック半導体の生産を一手に引き受け、3nm/5nm/7nmなどの最先端プロセス技術と先端パッケージング（CoWoS）で圧倒的シェアを持つ。直近12四半期はNVDAのAI構造転換始点（2023/5/24 Q1 FY24発表）と起点を揃え、Q2 FY23（2023/7/20）〜Q1 FY26（2026/4/16）。在庫調整の底（Q2 FY23, YoY-10%）から AI需要の経営見通し組み込み（Q4 FY23）、売上ターン（Q1 FY24, NT$+16.5%）、本格AIブーム（Q1 FY25以降）を経て、Q1 FY26ではフル年売上見通しを『+30%超』へ引き上げ、グロスマージン66.2%（過去最高）を達成。月次売上も毎月開示する透明性の高い経営。","EPS ($, per ADR、希薄化後)","次Q売上ガイド (midpoint, $B)","株価反応 ($)",[11,34,56,77,99,120,141,162,183,204,226,247,268],{"quarter":12,"reportDate":13,"event":14,"revenue":15,"eps":20,"guidance":24,"stock":30},"Q2 FY23","2023/7/20","在庫調整の底（YoY -10% NT$）、次Qガイドもコンセンサス未達(-3.3%)。NVDA Q1 FY24発表（2023/5/24）直後の最初のTSM決算で、AI立ち上がり前の弱気ガイドだったことが当時のXポストで確認される",{"actual":16,"consensus":17,"beatPct":18,"yoyPct":19},"$15.68 B","$15.62 B",0.4,-10,{"actual":21,"consensus":22,"beatPct":23},"$1.14","$1.08",5.4,{"revenue":25,"eps":29},{"company":26,"consensus":27,"beatPct":28},"$17.10 B","$17.68 B",-3.3,null,{"reportClose":31,"nextClose":32,"changePct":33},"$103.06","$97.86",-5,{"quarter":35,"reportDate":36,"event":37,"revenue":38,"eps":43,"guidance":47,"stock":52},"Q3 FY23","2023/10/19","在庫調整の終盤、3nm本格量産入り。HPC/AI需要が緩やかに復調しつつスマホは弱い。次Qガイドはコンセンサスをmidpointベースで+3.8%上回り景気底打ちを示唆",{"actual":39,"consensus":40,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":42},"$17.28 B","$17.08 B",1.2,-10.8,{"actual":44,"consensus":45,"beatPct":46},"$1.29","$1.17",10.3,{"revenue":48,"eps":29},{"company":49,"consensus":50,"beatPct":51},"$19.20 B","$18.49 B",3.8,{"reportClose":53,"nextClose":54,"changePct":55},"$89.60","$92.91",3.7,{"quarter":57,"reportDate":58,"event":59,"revenue":60,"eps":64,"guidance":68,"stock":73},"Q4 FY23","2024/1/18","AI需要を経営見通しに明示的に組み込んだ最初の四半期、2024年通年healthy growth表明で株価+9.8%。次Qガイドは+1.0%小幅上振れ",{"actual":61,"consensus":62,"beatPct":41,"yoyPct":63},"$19.62 B","$19.39 B",-1.5,{"actual":65,"consensus":66,"beatPct":67},"$1.44","$1.36",5.9,{"revenue":69,"eps":29},{"company":70,"consensus":71,"beatPct":72},"$18.40 B","$18.22 B",1,{"reportClose":74,"nextClose":75,"changePct":76},"$102.95","$113.03",9.8,{"quarter":78,"reportDate":79,"event":80,"revenue":81,"eps":86,"guidance":90,"stock":95},"Q1 FY24","2024/4/18","AI需要『strong』複数回明言・売上YoY+16.5%(NT$)のターン四半期、次Qガイドも+3.6%上振れ。一方でファウンドリ業界見通しを慎重化し株価-4.9%",{"actual":82,"consensus":83,"beatPct":84,"yoyPct":85},"$18.87 B","$18.56 B",1.7,16.5,{"actual":87,"consensus":88,"beatPct":89},"$1.38","$1.31",5.3,{"revenue":91,"eps":29},{"company":92,"consensus":93,"beatPct":94},"$20.00 B","$19.30 B",3.6,{"reportClose":96,"nextClose":97,"changePct":98},"$139.03","$132.27",-4.9,{"quarter":100,"reportDate":101,"event":102,"revenue":103,"eps":108,"guidance":112,"stock":117},"Q2 FY24","2024/7/18","AI需要追い風で売上・利益ともコンセンサス上振れ、Q3ガイドも+30〜33% YoYで強気",{"actual":104,"consensus":105,"beatPct":106,"yoyPct":107},"$20.82 B","$20.32 B",2.5,32.8,{"actual":109,"consensus":110,"beatPct":111},"$1.48","$1.42",4.2,{"revenue":113,"eps":29},{"company":114,"consensus":115,"beatPct":116},"$22.80 B","$22.40 B",1.8,{"reportClose":118,"nextClose":119,"changePct":18},"$171.20","$171.87",{"quarter":121,"reportDate":122,"event":123,"revenue":124,"eps":129,"guidance":133,"stock":138},"Q3 FY24","2024/10/17","AI需要爆発でEPS+9.6%上振れ、Q4ガイドも市場予想を大きく上回り株価+9.8%急騰",{"actual":125,"consensus":126,"beatPct":127,"yoyPct":128},"$23.50 B","$23.00 B",2.2,36,{"actual":130,"consensus":131,"beatPct":132},"$1.94","$1.77",9.6,{"revenue":134,"eps":29},{"company":135,"consensus":136,"beatPct":137},"$26.50 B","$24.90 B",6.4,{"reportClose":139,"nextClose":140,"changePct":76},"$187.48","$205.84",{"quarter":142,"reportDate":143,"event":144,"revenue":145,"eps":150,"guidance":153,"stock":158},"Q4 FY24","2025/1/16","売上・EPSともコンセンサス上振れ、2025年Capex US$38-42B（過去最大）発表で株価+3.9%",{"actual":146,"consensus":147,"beatPct":148,"yoyPct":149},"$26.88 B","$26.38 B",1.9,37,{"actual":151,"consensus":152,"beatPct":55},"$2.24","$2.16",{"revenue":154,"eps":29},{"company":155,"consensus":156,"beatPct":157},"$25.40 B","$24.40 B",4.1,{"reportClose":159,"nextClose":160,"changePct":161},"$206.80","$214.79",3.9,{"quarter":163,"reportDate":164,"event":165,"revenue":166,"eps":170,"guidance":174,"stock":179},"Q1 FY25","2025/4/17","売上・EPSとも僅差で上振れ、Q2ガイドは強気だがTrump関税懸念の中で株価ほぼ横ばい",{"actual":167,"consensus":155,"beatPct":168,"yoyPct":169},"$25.53 B",0.5,35.3,{"actual":171,"consensus":172,"beatPct":173},"$2.12","$2.06",2.1,{"revenue":175,"eps":29},{"company":176,"consensus":177,"beatPct":178},"$28.80 B","$26.70 B",7.9,{"reportClose":180,"nextClose":181,"changePct":182},"$151.67","$151.74",0,{"quarter":184,"reportDate":185,"event":186,"revenue":187,"eps":192,"guidance":195,"stock":200},"Q2 FY25","2025/7/17","売上US$30B超え達成、EPS+60.7% YoY、Arizona第2 fabにR&Dセンター追加で株価+3.4%",{"actual":188,"consensus":189,"beatPct":190,"yoyPct":191},"$30.07 B","$30.04 B",0.1,44.4,{"actual":193,"consensus":194,"beatPct":111},"$2.47","$2.37",{"revenue":196,"eps":29},{"company":197,"consensus":198,"beatPct":199},"$32.40 B","$30.40 B",6.6,{"reportClose":201,"nextClose":202,"changePct":203},"$237.56","$245.60",3.4,{"quarter":205,"reportDate":206,"event":207,"revenue":208,"eps":213,"guidance":217,"stock":222},"Q3 FY25","2025/10/16","EPS+12.7%・グロスマージン59.5%が自社ガイドを200bp上振れ、フル年売上見通し『mid-30s%』へ引き上げ。事前期待過剰でSell-the-news",{"actual":209,"consensus":210,"beatPct":211,"yoyPct":212},"$33.10 B","$31.50 B",5.1,40.8,{"actual":214,"consensus":215,"beatPct":216},"$2.92","$2.59",12.7,{"revenue":218,"eps":29},{"company":219,"consensus":220,"beatPct":221},"$32.80 B","$32.30 B",1.5,{"reportClose":223,"nextClose":224,"changePct":225},"$304.71","$299.84",-1.6,{"quarter":227,"reportDate":228,"event":229,"revenue":230,"eps":234,"guidance":238,"stock":243},"Q4 FY25","2026/1/15","グロスマージン62.3%（過去最高、ガイドを110bp上振れ）、2026 Capex US$52-56B 発表でAI需要持続を強調",{"actual":231,"consensus":232,"beatPct":127,"yoyPct":233},"$33.73 B","$33.00 B",25.5,{"actual":235,"consensus":236,"beatPct":237},"$3.14","$2.97",5.7,{"revenue":239,"eps":29},{"company":240,"consensus":241,"beatPct":242},"$35.20 B","$32.50 B",8.3,{"reportClose":244,"nextClose":245,"changePct":246},"$341.64","$342.40",0.2,{"quarter":248,"reportDate":249,"event":250,"revenue":251,"eps":256,"guidance":260,"stock":264},"Q1 FY26","2026/4/16","グロスマージン66.2%（前Q+390bp、過去最高）、Q2ガイドUS$39.0-40.2B、フル年売上ガイド『+30%超』へ引き上げ。AI需要『extremely robust』。当日Sell-the-news",{"actual":252,"consensus":253,"beatPct":254,"yoyPct":255},"$35.90 B","$35.50 B",1.1,40.6,{"actual":257,"consensus":258,"beatPct":259},"$3.49","$3.30",5.8,{"revenue":261,"eps":29},{"company":262,"consensus":263,"beatPct":161},"$39.60 B","$38.10 B",{"reportClose":265,"nextClose":266,"changePct":267},"$375.10","$363.35",-3.1,{"quarter":269,"reportDate":270,"isForecast":271,"event":272,"revenue":273,"eps":276,"guidance":278,"stock":283},"Q2 FY26","2026/7/16",true,"2026/7/16 BTO 発表予定。2026/6/22時点のアナリスト予想は当期売上 $39.84 B / 非GAAP EPS $0.75、次Q (3Q 2026) 売上 $43.36 B / EPS $0.82（Koyfin 集約コンセンサス）。",{"actual":274,"consensus":275,"beatPct":29,"yoyPct":29},"n/a","$39.57 B",{"actual":274,"consensus":277,"beatPct":29},"$0.75",{"revenue":279,"eps":281},{"company":274,"consensus":280,"beatPct":29},"$43.11 B",{"company":274,"consensus":282,"beatPct":29},"$0.82",{"reportClose":274,"nextClose":274,"changePct":29},[285,286,287,288,289,290,291,292,293,294],"Q2 FY26（2026/7/16 発表予定）はアナリスト予想のみ先行入力。当期 売上$39.84 B / EPS$0.75、次Q (3Q 2026) 売上$43.36 B / EPS$0.82 はいずれも 2026/6/22 時点で参照可能な Koyfin 集約コンセンサス。会社ガイダンス・実績・反応は発表後に更新する。","観察期間は NVIDIA (NVDA) の AI 構造転換始点である 2023/5/24（NVDA Q1 FY24発表日）と起点を揃え、その直後のTSM四半期 Q2 FY23（2023/7/20発表）から直近Q1 FY26（2026/4/16発表）までの12四半期。","TSM は会計年度がカレンダー年と一致（FY23=2023/1〜12、FY24=2024/1〜12、FY25=2025/1〜12）。1 ADR = 5 普通株、EPS は US$/ADR の希薄化後ベース。","TSM は次Q EPS ガイドを直接公表しない（売上・粗利率・営業利益率の3点のみガイド）。表の guidance.eps は全て空欄（公表していない）。","実績・会社ガイダンスは TSM 公式IR (investor.tsmc.com) / SEC EDGAR Form 6-K、コンセンサスは LSEG / Zacks / Reuters / Investing.com 経由の事前コンセンサス代表値。NT$建てで報じられたコンセンサス（特に古い四半期）は当時のNT$/$レートで US$ 換算しているため±3-5%の換算誤差を含む。","Q2 FY23〜Q1 FY24 の guidance.revenue.consensus は LSEG/Reuters の当時記事で2ソース突き合わせできなかったため、Grok 経由の X(旧Twitter) 検索（x-search）で発表当日の決算速報系アカウント @EricJhonsa / @StockMKTNewz / @TradersCom / @BlackSwanStreet / @epictrades1 / @JensKlattFX / @ftr_investors / @deltahedge_io / @FABYMETAL4 等の投稿3件以上を集めた中央値を採用。投稿は2023/7/20・2023/10/19・2024/1/18・2024/4/18 のいずれも発表当日 GMT 06:11〜13:10 の即時報道。アグリゲータ（FactSet/Refinitiv/Bloomberg）の差で±0.3B 程度のブレあり。","Q2 FY23〜Q1 FY24 の EPS コンセンサスは USD 直接報道がないため NT$ 純利益コンセンサスから比例算出（NIコンセンサス比率で実績EPS×ratio）。NT$/$ レートと利益率の前提を含むため±5%程度の誤差を含む。","売上のYoYは NT$ 建ての公式開示値を採用（USD建てだとFX変動でブレが大きいため）。","株価は Stooq の日次終値を採用。TSM ADR は NY 時間 BMO（市場前）発表のため、reportClose は発表前営業日終値、nextClose は発表当日終値。Q4 FY25（2026/1/15）は前々日比 +4.4%（$327.11→$341.64）の上昇後に発表されたため、発表当日終値→翌日終値の見かけの反応は+0.2%にとどまる。","Q2 FY24 当日は半導体セクター全体の調整影響で翌7/19に株価-3.5%まで波及（決算ミスではない）。","決定的だったのはQ1 FY26（2026/4/16発表）。グロスマージンが前Q+390bp の66.2%（過去最高）まで跳ね、Q2ガイドUS$39.0-40.2B（コンセンサス$38.1Bを上振れ）、さらにフル年売上ガイドを従来の『mid-30s%』から『+30%超』へ引き上げた。CC Wei CEO が AI 需要を『extremely robust』と言い切り、TSM が単なる『AI 銘柄の代理』ではなく『AI サプライチェーンの確定リーダー』であることをマージンで示した瞬間。当日株価は『Sell-the-news＋関税ヘッドライン懸念』で-3.1%だったが、その後のQ2 FY25→Q1 FY26の連続マージン拡大（57.8%→58.6%→59.5%→62.3%→66.2%）は構造転換の典型シグナル。",[297,300,303,306,309,312,315,318,321,324,327,330,333,336,339,342,345,348,351,354,357,360,363,366,369,372,375],{"label":298,"url":299},"TSMC Quarterly Results (IR)","https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results",{"label":301,"url":302},"TSMC 2Q24 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3160",{"label":304,"url":305},"TSMC 3Q24 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3180",{"label":307,"url":308},"TSMC 4Q24 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3201",{"label":310,"url":311},"TSMC 1Q25 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3222",{"label":313,"url":314},"TSMC 2Q25 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3249",{"label":316,"url":317},"TSMC 3Q25 (IR)","https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2025/q3",{"label":319,"url":320},"TSMC 4Q25 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3281",{"label":322,"url":323},"TSMC 1Q26 Press Release","https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3297",{"label":325,"url":326},"CNBC: TSMC Q2 2023 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/tsmc-q2-earnings.html",{"label":328,"url":329},"CNBC: TSMC Q3 2023 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/tsmc-earnings-report-q3-2023.html",{"label":331,"url":332},"CNBC: TSMC Q4 2023 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/tsmc-q4-2023-earnings-report.html",{"label":334,"url":335},"CNBC: TSMC Q1 2024 earnings on strong AI chip demand","https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/18/tsmc-q1-2024-earnings-on-strong-ai-chip-demand.html",{"label":337,"url":338},"TrendForce: TSMC Q1 2024 results","https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/04/18/news-tsmc-q1-earnings-beat-expectations-while-eying-up-to-8-revenue-growth-in-q2/",{"label":340,"url":341},"X-search Q2 FY23: @EricJhonsa『$TSM guides Q3 $16.7B-$17.5B vs $17.45B consensus』","https://x.com/EricJhonsa/status/1681909715624939521",{"label":343,"url":344},"X-search Q2 FY23: @StockMKTNewz『next quarter $16.7B-$17.5B below expectations of $17.7B』","https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1681967583199625216",{"label":346,"url":347},"X-search Q3 FY23: @EricJhonsa『Q4 $18.8B-$19.6B above $18.33B consensus』","https://x.com/EricJhonsa/status/1714889557030617220",{"label":349,"url":350},"X-search Q3 FY23: @TradersCom『Q4 outlook above estimates, consensus revenue $18.33B』","https://x.com/TradersCom/status/1714962253642936736",{"label":352,"url":353},"X-search Q4 FY23: @EricJhonsa『Q1 $18B-$18.8B vs $18.22B consensus』","https://x.com/EricJhonsa/status/1747869340324782579",{"label":355,"url":356},"X-search Q4 FY23: @epictrades1『Q1 revenue $18B-$18.8B, consensus $18.26B』","https://x.com/epictrades1/status/1747969626430992889",{"label":358,"url":359},"X-search Q1 FY24: @ftr_investors『Q2 $19.6-$20.4B, well above estimate of $19.3B』","https://x.com/ftr_investors/status/1780845979551379465",{"label":361,"url":362},"X-search Q1 FY24: @deltahedge_io『Q2 $19.6-$20.4B above estimate $19.3B』","https://x.com/deltahedge_io/status/1780912548587405560",{"label":364,"url":365},"SEC EDGAR TSM filings (CIK 0001046179)","https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001046179",{"label":367,"url":368},"Investing.com: TSMC Q4 FY24 results (Reuters)","https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tsmc-posts-q4-revenue-of-104608-billion-above-forecasts-4438484",{"label":370,"url":371},"CNBC: TSMC Q2 FY24 earnings","https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/18/tsmc-q2-2024-earnings.html",{"label":373,"url":374},"VanEck: TSMC Q1 FY26 earnings call analysis","https://www.vaneck.com/offshore/en/news-and-insights/blogs/thematic-investing/tsmc-q1-earnings-call-what-it-means-for-smh/",{"label":376,"url":377},"Stooq TSM.US daily history","https://stooq.com/q/?s=tsm.us",{"date":379,"close":380},"2026-06-18","$462.12","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/pages/general/beat-monitoring-TSM.png?title=TSM%20Taiwan%20Semiconductor%20Manufacturing%20-%20%E3%83%93%E3%83%BC%E3%83%88%E3%83%A2%E3%83%8B%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B0&sig=b4ef9c2b5eb8e7a5",1782528864960]