[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":700},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25":3,"all-pages-for-dir":678,"related-/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25":679,"og-image-/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25":699},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":658,"concepts":659,"description":660,"extension":661,"meta":662,"navigation":663,"ogImage":659,"path":664,"project_name":659,"published":665,"publishedAt":666,"seo":667,"source":659,"stem":668,"tags":669,"todo":676,"unpublished":665,"updatedAt":659,"__hash__":677},"pages/2026-02/2026-02-25/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25.md","不動産投資レバレッジ効果の検証 ― 本当に「3.5%運用と同じ」なのか？",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":639},"minimark",[9,13,17,21,24,27,30,164,166,169,173,247,250,283,285,289,296,303,305,308,311,420,427,429,433,436,578,585,587,590,594,600,606,612,618,622,625,628,631,633],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"不動産投資レバレッジ効果の検証-本当に35運用と同じなのか",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"問題提起",[18,19,20],"p",{},"「表面利回り7%の新築物件をLTV90%・金利2.4%/30年で購入し、10年後に同額で売却した場合、投下自己資金を3.5%で運用したのとほぼ同じ。保有中のリスクや心労を加味してやる価値はあるのか？」",[18,22,23],{},"この主張を検証するため、キャッシュフローベースのシミュレーションを行った。",[25,26],"hr",{},[14,28,29],{"id":29},"シミュレーション前提条件",[31,32,33,51],"table",{},[34,35,36],"thead",{},[37,38,39,44,48],"tr",{},[40,41,43],"th",{"align":42},"left","項目",[40,45,47],{"align":46},"right","値",[40,49,50],{"align":42},"備考",[52,53,54,66,77,88,99,110,120,131,142,153],"tbody",{},[37,55,56,60,63],{},[57,58,59],"td",{"align":42},"物件価格",[57,61,62],{"align":46},"1億円",[57,64,65],{"align":42},"—",[37,67,68,71,74],{},[57,69,70],{"align":42},"表面利回り",[57,72,73],{"align":46},"7.0%",[57,75,76],{"align":42},"年間賃料700万円",[37,78,79,82,85],{},[57,80,81],{"align":42},"融資比率（LTV）",[57,83,84],{"align":46},"90%",[57,86,87],{"align":42},"借入9,000万円",[37,89,90,93,96],{},[57,91,92],{"align":42},"借入金利",[57,94,95],{"align":46},"2.4%",[57,97,98],{"align":42},"固定想定",[37,100,101,104,107],{},[57,102,103],{"align":42},"借入期間",[57,105,106],{"align":46},"30年",[57,108,109],{"align":42},"元利均等返済",[37,111,112,115,118],{},[57,113,114],{"align":42},"保有期間",[57,116,117],{"align":46},"10年",[57,119,65],{"align":42},[37,121,122,125,128],{},[57,123,124],{"align":42},"経費率",[57,126,127],{"align":46},"30%",[57,129,130],{"align":42},"管理費・修繕積立・固都税・空室損等",[37,132,133,136,139],{},[57,134,135],{"align":42},"購入諸費用",[57,137,138],{"align":46},"7%",[57,140,141],{"align":42},"登記・不動産取得税・仲介手数料等",[37,143,144,147,150],{},[57,145,146],{"align":42},"売却諸費用",[57,148,149],{"align":46},"3.5%",[57,151,152],{"align":42},"仲介手数料等",[37,154,155,158,161],{},[57,156,157],{"align":42},"売却価格",[57,159,160],{"align":46},"購入価格と同額",[57,162,163],{"align":42},"インフレによる名目維持を前提",[25,165],{},[14,167,168],{"id":168},"シミュレーション結果",[170,171,172],"h3",{"id":172},"キャッシュフロー概要",[31,174,175,184],{},[34,176,177],{},[37,178,179,181],{},[40,180,43],{"align":42},[40,182,183],{"align":46},"金額",[52,185,186,194,202,210,218,226,234],{},[37,187,188,191],{},[57,189,190],{"align":42},"投下自己資金（頭金＋諸費用）",[57,192,193],{"align":46},"▲1,700万円",[37,195,196,199],{},[57,197,198],{"align":42},"年間NOI（純収益）",[57,200,201],{"align":46},"490万円",[37,203,204,207],{},[57,205,206],{"align":42},"年間返済額（元利均等）",[57,208,209],{"align":46},"424万円",[37,211,212,215],{},[57,213,214],{"align":42},"年間運営キャッシュフロー",[57,216,217],{"align":46},"65.7万円",[37,219,220,223],{},[57,221,222],{"align":42},"10年後ローン残高",[57,224,225],{"align":46},"6,677万円",[37,227,228,231],{},[57,229,230],{"align":42},"売却手取り（1億 − 350万 − 6,677万）",[57,232,233],{"align":46},"2,973万円",[37,235,236,242],{},[57,237,238],{"align":42},[239,240,241],"strong",{},"トータル回収（運営CF＋売却手取り）",[57,243,244],{"align":46},[239,245,246],{},"約3,630万円",[170,248,249],{"id":249},"投資成果",[31,251,252,261],{},[34,253,254],{},[37,255,256,259],{},[40,257,258],{"align":42},"指標",[40,260,47],{"align":46},[52,262,263,275],{},[37,264,265,270],{},[57,266,267],{"align":42},[239,268,269],{},"自己資金IRR（税引前）",[57,271,272],{"align":46},[239,273,274],{},"8.83%",[37,276,277,280],{},[57,278,279],{"align":42},"トータルリターン",[57,281,282],{"align":46},"約113%",[25,284],{},[14,286,288],{"id":287},"_35説はなぜ間違いか","「3.5%説」はなぜ間違いか",[18,290,291,292,295],{},"元の主張は、年間運営CFだけを見て ",[239,293,294],{},"65.7万 ÷ 1,700万 ≈ 3.9% → ざっくり3.5%"," と計算したものと思われる。",[18,297,298,299,302],{},"しかしこの計算は",[239,300,301],{},"ローンの元金返済による資産蓄積を完全に無視","している。毎年の返済額424万のうち、利息は初年度216万円で、残り208万円は元金返済に充当される。10年間で約2,323万円の元金が返済され、これが売却時に自己資金として回収される。この「見えないリターン」を含めるとIRRは約8.83%となり、3.5%とは大きく異なる。",[25,304],{},[14,306,307],{"id":307},"金融商品との比較",[18,309,310],{},"1,700万円を一括で複利運用した場合の10年後評価額：",[31,312,313,326],{},[34,314,315],{},[37,316,317,320,323],{},[40,318,319],{"align":46},"年利",[40,321,322],{"align":46},"10年後評価額",[40,324,325],{"align":46},"利益",[52,327,328,338,349,360,371,381,398,409],{},[37,329,330,332,335],{},[57,331,149],{"align":46},[57,333,334],{"align":46},"2,398万円",[57,336,337],{"align":46},"698万円",[37,339,340,343,346],{},[57,341,342],{"align":46},"4.0%",[57,344,345],{"align":46},"2,516万円",[57,347,348],{"align":46},"816万円",[37,350,351,354,357],{},[57,352,353],{"align":46},"5.0%",[57,355,356],{"align":46},"2,769万円",[57,358,359],{"align":46},"1,069万円",[37,361,362,365,368],{},[57,363,364],{"align":46},"6.0%",[57,366,367],{"align":46},"3,044万円",[57,369,370],{"align":46},"1,344万円",[37,372,373,375,378],{},[57,374,73],{"align":46},[57,376,377],{"align":46},"3,344万円",[57,379,380],{"align":46},"1,644万円",[37,382,383,388,393],{},[57,384,385],{"align":46},[239,386,387],{},"8.0%",[57,389,390],{"align":46},[239,391,392],{},"3,669万円",[57,394,395],{"align":46},[239,396,397],{},"1,969万円",[37,399,400,403,406],{},[57,401,402],{"align":46},"9.0%",[57,404,405],{"align":46},"4,024万円",[57,407,408],{"align":46},"2,324万円",[37,410,411,414,417],{},[57,412,413],{"align":46},"10.0%",[57,415,416],{"align":46},"4,410万円",[57,418,419],{"align":46},"2,710万円",[18,421,422,423,426],{},"不動産のトータル回収約3,630万円は、一括複利運用で見ると",[239,424,425],{},"7〜8%の間","に相当する。IRRが8.83%とやや高くなるのは、途中で毎年CFを受け取れることの時間価値が加味されるためである。",[25,428],{},[14,430,432],{"id":431},"感度分析利回り-金利のirrマトリクス","感度分析（利回り × 金利のIRRマトリクス）",[18,434,435],{},"LTV90%、経費率30%、10年後同額売却の条件で固定。",[31,437,438,460],{},[34,439,440],{},[37,441,442,445,448,451,455,458],{},[40,443,444],{"align":46},"表面利回り＼金利",[40,446,447],{"align":46},"1.5%",[40,449,450],{"align":46},"2.0%",[40,452,453],{"align":46},[239,454,95],{},[40,456,457],{"align":46},"3.0%",[40,459,149],{"align":46},[52,461,462,481,500,522,541,560],{},[37,463,464,466,469,472,475,478],{},[57,465,353],{"align":46},[57,467,468],{"align":46},"5.48%",[57,470,471],{"align":46},"3.78%",[57,473,474],{"align":46},"2.36%",[57,476,477],{"align":46},"0.12%",[57,479,480],{"align":46},"-1.84%",[37,482,483,485,488,491,494,497],{},[57,484,364],{"align":46},[57,486,487],{"align":46},"8.63%",[57,489,490],{"align":46},"6.95%",[57,492,493],{"align":46},"5.55%",[57,495,496],{"align":46},"3.35%",[57,498,499],{"align":46},"1.41%",[37,501,502,506,509,512,516,519],{},[57,503,504],{"align":46},[239,505,73],{},[57,507,508],{"align":46},"11.89%",[57,510,511],{"align":46},"10.22%",[57,513,514],{"align":46},[239,515,274],{},[57,517,518],{"align":46},"6.65%",[57,520,521],{"align":46},"4.75%",[37,523,524,526,529,532,535,538],{},[57,525,387],{"align":46},[57,527,528],{"align":46},"15.24%",[57,530,531],{"align":46},"13.58%",[57,533,534],{"align":46},"12.21%",[57,536,537],{"align":46},"10.05%",[57,539,540],{"align":46},"8.17%",[37,542,543,545,548,551,554,557],{},[57,544,402],{"align":46},[57,546,547],{"align":46},"18.68%",[57,549,550],{"align":46},"17.04%",[57,552,553],{"align":46},"15.67%",[57,555,556],{"align":46},"13.53%",[57,558,559],{"align":46},"11.66%",[37,561,562,564,567,570,573,576],{},[57,563,413],{"align":46},[57,565,566],{"align":46},"22.21%",[57,568,569],{"align":46},"20.58%",[57,571,572],{"align":46},"19.22%",[57,574,575],{"align":46},"17.09%",[57,577,528],{"align":46},[18,579,580,581,584],{},"金利が3.5%まで上昇し、表面利回りが6%まで下がると、IRRは",[239,582,583],{},"2%未満","にまで低下する。",[25,586],{},[14,588,589],{"id":589},"総合評価",[170,591,593],{"id":592},"不動産投資の構造的な課題現在の市況下","不動産投資の構造的な課題（現在の市況下）",[18,595,596,599],{},[239,597,598],{},"レバレッジが利益も損失も9倍に増幅する",": LTV90%で買うと、自己資金の9倍を不動産市場に晒すことになる。物件価格が10%下がれば自己資金は吹き飛ぶ。それで得られるIRRが8〜9%では、張っている額に対してリターンが薄い。",[18,601,602,605],{},[239,603,604],{},"表面7%を都内で拾えない",": 都内の新築〜築浅で表面7%の物件はほぼ出てこない。7%を狙うと地方か築古に手を伸ばすことになり、空室が長引き、売りたいときに買い手がつかないリスクを抱え込む。",[18,607,608,611],{},[239,609,610],{},"金利上昇が直接キャッシュを削る",": 変動金利なら毎月の返済額がそのまま膨らむ。固定金利でも、金利上昇局面では物件の売却価格が押し下げられるため、出口で回収額が目減りする。",[18,613,614,617],{},[239,615,616],{},"10年間、管理業務から逃げられない",": 管理会社との折衝、入退去の手配、修繕の判断、確定申告――これらが10年間途切れることなく降りかかる。証券口座の株はクリック一つで売れるが、不動産はそうはいかない。",[170,619,621],{"id":620},"株式投資半導体ai銘柄との比較優位","株式投資（半導体・AI銘柄）との比較優位",[18,623,624],{},"自分の手で財務諸表を読み解ける領域に資金を投じる方が、判断の精度を上げやすい。株式はいつでも市場で売却でき、管理コストも発生しない。成長セクターの過去10年リターンはIRR 8〜9%を超えてきた実績がある。同じ1,700万円を使うなら、自分が土地勘を持つ領域に集中させた方がリターンを取りに行ける。",[170,626,627],{"id":627},"結論",[18,629,630],{},"「3.5%運用と同じ」という元の主張は、元金返済を見落としている。正しくはIRR約8.83%になる。しかし、この8.83%を手にするために10年間の管理労務を引き受け、物件価格下落・金利上昇・空室長期化のリスクを9倍のレバレッジで背負うことになる。リスクと手間を差し引くと、実質的に手元に残る価値は3〜4%程度まで縮む可能性がある。金利が上がり利回りが圧縮される今の市況で、わざわざ不動産にレバレッジをかけに行く理由は見当たらない。",[25,632],{},[18,634,635],{},[636,637,638],"em",{},"2026年2月 シミュレーション実施",{"title":640,"searchDepth":641,"depth":641,"links":642},"",2,[643,644,645,650,651,652,653],{"id":16,"depth":641,"text":16},{"id":29,"depth":641,"text":29},{"id":168,"depth":641,"text":168,"children":646},[647,649],{"id":172,"depth":648,"text":172},3,{"id":249,"depth":648,"text":249},{"id":287,"depth":641,"text":288},{"id":307,"depth":641,"text":307},{"id":431,"depth":641,"text":432},{"id":589,"depth":641,"text":589,"children":654},[655,656,657],{"id":592,"depth":648,"text":593},{"id":620,"depth":648,"text":621},{"id":627,"depth":648,"text":627},"personal",null,"表面利回り7%・LTV90%の不動産投資をCFベースでシミュレーション。元金返済の資産蓄積を含めるとIRRは約8.83%だが、リスク調整後の実質価値は3〜4%程度。株式投資との比較優位を検証。","md",{},true,"/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25",false,"2026-02-25T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":5,"description":660},"2026-02/2026-02-25/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25",[670,671,672,673,674,675],"不動産投資","レバレッジ","IRR","シミュレーション","資産運用","感度分析","memo","QrzfhMjSec4JcEI1-dZJYwic7pysKuh81fyRaJUYTrg",[],[680,684,688,692,695],{"title":681,"path":682,"publishedAt":683},"Excel解析から始める不動産投資収益シミュレーションWebアプリの設計と実装","/fudosan-simulation-webapp","2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":685,"path":686,"publishedAt":687},"個人投資家16人に共通する「億り人の型」— 近道は『倍率』より『種銭』だった","/millionaire-16-summary","2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":689,"path":690,"publishedAt":691},"個別株を現物で中長期に持つ理由｜「集中投資はレバレッジと同じ」が成り立たない一点について","/why-individual-stocks-cash-longterm","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":693,"path":694,"publishedAt":683},"2026年6月12日の開発日記 - 書籍取り込みのバッチ化と登記簿コンテンツ全章展開","/2026-06-12-diary",{"title":696,"path":697,"publishedAt":698},"不動産投資シミュレーションと物件検索アプリの設計メモ","/real-estate-apps-design","2026-01-16T00:00:00.000Z","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/blog/real-estate-leverage-verification-2026-02-25.png?v=2026-02-25T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&title=%E4%B8%8D%E5%8B%95%E7%94%A3%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E3%83%AC%E3%83%90%E3%83%AC%E3%83%83%E3%82%B8%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C%E3%81%AE%E6%A4%9C%E8%A8%BC%20%E2%80%95%20%E6%9C%AC%E5%BD%93%E3%81%AB%E3%80%8C3.5%25%E9%81%8B%E7%94%A8%E3%81%A8%E5%90%8C%E3%81%98%E3%80%8D%E3%81%AA%E3%81%AE%E3%81%8B%EF%BC%9F&author=Kei%20Komatsu&sig=d697eb6c4e981503",1785654959719]