[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":894},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-/saas_ai_analysis":3,"all-pages-for-dir":873,"related-/saas_ai_analysis":874,"og-image-/saas_ai_analysis":893},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":857,"concepts":858,"description":859,"extension":860,"meta":861,"navigation":862,"ogImage":858,"path":863,"project_name":858,"published":864,"publishedAt":865,"seo":866,"source":858,"stem":867,"tags":868,"todo":858,"unpublished":864,"updatedAt":858,"__hash__":872},"pages/2026-01/2026-01-29/saas_ai_analysis.md","生成AI時代のSaaS生存戦略 - 議論まとめ",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":823},"minimark",[9,13,17,21,24,28,33,36,39,61,64,66,70,73,106,108,112,117,177,181,192,196,207,211,225,231,237,241,258,263,265,269,274,328,331,334,336,340,345,399,405,407,410,414,417,505,508,552,554,558,562,637,641,662,664,668,671,719,722,733,739,741,745,748,768,770,773,776,790,796,798,801],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"生成ai時代のsaas生存戦略-議論まとめ",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"概要",[18,19,20],"p",{},"生成AIの台頭により、SaaS企業の淘汰が進むという仮説について、四象限フレームワークを用いて整理した議論のまとめ。",[22,23],"hr",{},[14,25,27],{"id":26},"前提生成aiで変わること","前提：生成AIで変わること",[29,30,32],"h3",{"id":31},"需要が減るのはエンジニアではなくit企業saas事業会社","需要が減るのはエンジニアではなくIT企業（SaaS事業会社）",[18,34,35],{},"生成AIによって「エンジニアが不要になる」のではなく、「AIを活用したいから、AIを一番うまく使えるエンジニアを採用する」という流れになる。",[29,37,38],{"id":38},"新しいプレイヤーの登場",[40,41,42,49,55],"ul",{},[43,44,45],"li",{},[46,47,48],"strong",{},"従来のエンジニア",[43,50,51,54],{},[46,52,53],{},"AIネイティブエンジニア","（AIで生産性爆上げ）",[43,56,57,60],{},[46,58,59],{},"AI活用専門家","（税理士、医師、弁護士など専門家 × AI）← NEW!",[18,62,63],{},"この「AI活用専門家」の増加が、SaaSの内製化を加速させる可能性がある。",[22,65],{},[14,67,69],{"id":68},"生き残るsaasの条件","生き残るSaaSの条件",[18,71,72],{},"以下の条件に該当するSaaSは代替されづらい：",[74,75,76,82,88,94,100],"ol",{},[43,77,78,81],{},[46,79,80],{},"グループウェア",": Google Workspace、Microsoft 365（開発コスト・移行コストが尋常ではない）",[43,83,84,87],{},[46,85,86],{},"深いドメイン知識が必要な分野",": freee、マネーフォワード、医療、法務、金融系",[43,89,90,93],{},[46,91,92],{},"ネットワーク効果があるSaaS",": Slackコネクトのような他社と一緒に使う機能",[43,95,96,99],{},[46,97,98],{},"運用コストが高いSaaS",": 決済、認証（セキュリティを考えると運用したくない）",[43,101,102,105],{},[46,103,104],{},"低価格SaaS",": 運用コストを考えて内製化しない選択",[22,107],{},[14,109,111],{"id":110},"四象限saasの生存マトリクス","四象限①：SaaSの生存マトリクス",[18,113,114],{},[46,115,116],{},"目的：どのSaaSが生き残るか",[118,119,120,135],"table",{},[121,122,123],"thead",{},[124,125,126,129,132],"tr",{},[127,128],"th",{},[127,130,131],{},"スイッチングコスト 高",[127,133,134],{},"スイッチングコスト 低",[136,137,138,158],"tbody",{},[124,139,140,146,152],{},[141,142,143],"td",{},[46,144,145],{},"内製化障壁 高",[141,147,148,149],{},"🏆 ",[46,150,151],{},"王者",[141,153,154,155],{},"🛡️ ",[46,156,157],{},"専門性で防御",[124,159,160,165,171],{},[141,161,162],{},[46,163,164],{},"内製化障壁 低",[141,166,167,168],{},"🧟 ",[46,169,170],{},"ゾンビ化",[141,172,173,174],{},"💀 ",[46,175,176],{},"淘汰候補",[29,178,180],{"id":179},"王者内製化障壁-高-スイッチングコスト-高","🏆 王者（内製化障壁 高 × スイッチングコスト 高）",[40,182,183,186,189],{},[43,184,185],{},"Google Workspace",[43,187,188],{},"Microsoft 365",[43,190,191],{},"Salesforce（エンタープライズ機能）",[29,193,195],{"id":194},"️-専門性で防御内製化障壁-高-スイッチングコスト-低","🛡️ 専門性で防御（内製化障壁 高 × スイッチングコスト 低）",[40,197,198,201,204],{},[43,199,200],{},"freee、マネーフォワード（税務連携部分）",[43,202,203],{},"決済SaaS（Stripe等）",[43,205,206],{},"認証SaaS（Auth0等）",[29,208,210],{"id":209},"ゾンビ化内製化障壁-低-スイッチングコスト-高","🧟 ゾンビ化（内製化障壁 低 × スイッチングコスト 高）",[40,212,213,216,219,222],{},[43,214,215],{},"汎用CRM（Salesforceの基本機能）",[43,217,218],{},"人事管理（Workday）",[43,220,221],{},"社内Wiki（Confluence、DocBase）",[43,223,224],{},"勤怠管理（シンプルな打刻系）",[18,226,227,230],{},[46,228,229],{},"特徴",": 切りたいけど移行が面倒で惰性で使い続ける。新規獲得は激減。",[18,232,233,236],{},[46,234,235],{},"実例",": Klarnaが1,200のSaaSを削減し、SalesforceとWorkdayの利用停止を宣言",[29,238,240],{"id":239},"淘汰候補内製化障壁-低-スイッチングコスト-低","💀 淘汰候補（内製化障壁 低 × スイッチングコスト 低）",[40,242,243,246,249,252,255],{},[43,244,245],{},"シンプルなタスク管理（Trello、Todoist、Any.do）",[43,247,248],{},"フォーム作成（Typeform、JotForm）",[43,250,251],{},"シンプルなアンケート（SurveyMonkey基本機能）",[43,253,254],{},"基本的なチャットボット",[43,256,257],{},"ノーコードの簡易ツール",[18,259,260,262],{},[46,261,229],{},": AIで「作って」と言えば30分で作れるレベル。AI活用専門家が増えると真っ先に内製化される。",[22,264],{},[14,266,268],{"id":267},"四象限人材需要の変化マトリクス","四象限②：人材需要の変化マトリクス",[18,270,271],{},[46,272,273],{},"目的：これからどんな人材が求められるか",[118,275,276,288],{},[121,277,278],{},[124,279,280,282,285],{},[127,281],{},[127,283,284],{},"ドメイン知識 深い",[127,286,287],{},"ドメイン知識 浅い",[136,289,290,308],{},[124,291,292,297,303],{},[141,293,294],{},[46,295,296],{},"AI活用力 高",[141,298,299,300],{},"🚀 ",[46,301,302],{},"最強人材",[141,304,305,306],{},"💻 ",[46,307,53],{},[124,309,310,315,322],{},[141,311,312],{},[46,313,314],{},"AI活用力 低",[141,316,317,318,321],{},"📚 ",[46,319,320],{},"従来の専門家","（徐々に苦しく）",[141,323,324,325],{},"📉 ",[46,326,327],{},"代替リスク高",[29,329,330],{"id":302},"🚀 最強人材",[18,332,333],{},"税理士×AI、医師×AI、弁護士×AI など。ドメイン知識とAI活用力の両方を持つ。",[22,335],{},[14,337,339],{"id":338},"四象限saasへの脅威源マトリクス","四象限③：SaaSへの脅威源マトリクス",[18,341,342],{},[46,343,344],{},"目的：誰がSaaSを代替するのか",[118,346,347,359],{},[121,348,349],{},[124,350,351,353,356],{},[127,352],{},[127,354,355],{},"従来エンジニアが内製化しやすい",[127,357,358],{},"従来エンジニアでも内製化しにくい",[136,360,361,380],{},[124,362,363,368,374],{},[141,364,365],{},[46,366,367],{},"AI活用専門家が内製化しやすい",[141,369,370,371],{},"⚡ ",[46,372,373],{},"即死",[141,375,376,377],{},"🎯 ",[46,378,379],{},"専門家に奪われる",[124,381,382,387,393],{},[141,383,384],{},[46,385,386],{},"AI活用専門家でも内製化しにくい",[141,388,389,390],{},"🔧 ",[46,391,392],{},"エンジニア採用で対応",[141,394,395,396],{},"🏰 ",[46,397,398],{},"鉄壁",[18,400,401,404],{},[46,402,403],{},"重要な示唆",": ドメイン特化SaaS（freee等）は、「AI活用専門家」に食われるリスクがある。",[22,406],{},[14,408,409],{"id":409},"バリューチェーン視点での分析",[29,411,413],{"id":412},"saas単位ではなく業務のどの部分を押さえているかで見る","SaaS単位ではなく「業務のどの部分を押さえているか」で見る",[18,415,416],{},"会計ソフト（freee）を例にした分解：",[118,418,419,435],{},[121,420,421],{},[124,422,423,426,429,432],{},[127,424,425],{},"機能",[127,427,428],{},"内製化障壁",[127,430,431],{},"スイッチングコスト",[127,433,434],{},"判断",[136,436,437,452,464,479,492],{},[124,438,439,442,445,447],{},[141,440,441],{},"紙→仕訳変換（入力側）",[141,443,444],{},"低",[141,446,444],{},[141,448,449],{},[46,450,451],{},"自分で作る",[124,453,454,457,459,461],{},[141,455,456],{},"仕訳→試算表（計算処理）",[141,458,444],{},[141,460,444],{},[141,462,463],{},"どっちでもいい",[124,465,466,469,472,474],{},[141,467,468],{},"税務申告連携",[141,470,471],{},"高",[141,473,471],{},[141,475,476],{},[46,477,478],{},"SaaSに任せる",[124,480,481,484,486,488],{},[141,482,483],{},"法改正対応",[141,485,471],{},[141,487,471],{},[141,489,490],{},[46,491,478],{},[124,493,494,497,499,501],{},[141,495,496],{},"電子帳簿保存法対応",[141,498,471],{},[141,500,471],{},[141,502,503],{},[46,504,478],{},[29,506,507],{"id":507},"バリューチェーン視点の四象限",[118,509,510,522],{},[121,511,512],{},[124,513,514,516,519],{},[127,515],{},[127,517,518],{},"バリューチェーン上流（入力・作成）",[127,520,521],{},"バリューチェーン下流（連携・申告・法対応）",[136,523,524,538],{},[124,525,526,530,533],{},[141,527,528],{},[46,529,145],{},[141,531,532],{},"専門判断が必要な入力",[141,534,395,535,537],{},[46,536,398],{},"（税務、決済、認証）",[124,539,540,544,549],{},[141,541,542],{},[46,543,164],{},[141,545,370,546],{},[46,547,548],{},"真っ先に内製化",[141,550,551],{},"🧟 ゾンビ化",[22,553],{},[14,555,557],{"id":556},"新カテゴリインフラ化","新カテゴリ：インフラ化",[29,559,561],{"id":560},"_5つのsaas運命カテゴリ","5つのSaaS運命カテゴリ",[118,563,564,577],{},[121,565,566],{},[124,567,568,571,574],{},[127,569,570],{},"カテゴリ",[127,572,573],{},"状態",[127,575,576],{},"例",[136,578,579,590,601,612,623],{},[124,580,581,584,587],{},[141,582,583],{},"🏆 王者",[141,585,586],{},"全機能が必要とされ続ける",[141,588,589],{},"Google Workspace, MS365",[124,591,592,595,598],{},[141,593,594],{},"🛡️ 専門防御",[141,596,597],{},"ドメイン知識で参入障壁",[141,599,600],{},"医療系、法務系",[124,602,603,606,609],{},[141,604,605],{},"🧟 ゾンビ",[141,607,608],{},"惰性で残る（新規は減る）",[141,610,611],{},"汎用CRM、社内Wiki",[124,613,614,617,620],{},[141,615,616],{},"💀 淘汰",[141,618,619],{},"真っ先に消える",[141,621,622],{},"Trello、フォーム系",[124,624,625,631,634],{},[141,626,627,628],{},"🔌 ",[46,629,630],{},"インフラ化",[141,632,633],{},"一部機能だけ使われる",[141,635,636],{},"会計ソフト、決済",[29,638,640],{"id":639},"インフラ化saasの特徴","インフラ化SaaSの特徴",[40,642,643,650,656,659],{},[43,644,645,646,649],{},"バリューチェーンの",[46,647,648],{},"下流だけ","価値がある",[43,651,652,653],{},"上流は内製化される → ",[46,654,655],{},"客単価（ARPU）が下がる可能性",[43,657,658],{},"でも「なくてはならない」から契約は続く",[43,660,661],{},"競争軸が「便利さ」→「安さ・安定性」に変わる",[22,663],{},[14,665,667],{"id":666},"時間軸で見たsaasの運命","時間軸で見たSaaSの運命",[18,669,670],{},"会計ソフトを例にした時間軸分析：",[118,672,673,685],{},[121,674,675],{},[124,676,677,680,682],{},[127,678,679],{},"段階",[127,681,573],{},[127,683,684],{},"説明",[136,686,687,698,708],{},[124,688,689,692,695],{},[141,690,691],{},"現在",[141,693,694],{},"🔌 インフラ化",[141,696,697],{},"上流（入力）は内製化、下流（税務連携）はSaaS",[124,699,700,703,705],{},[141,701,702],{},"近い将来",[141,704,551],{},[141,706,707],{},"API仕様を読めたが移行が面倒",[124,709,710,713,716],{},[141,711,712],{},"その先",[141,714,715],{},"💀 淘汰？",[141,717,718],{},"直接APIを叩けばいい",[29,720,721],{"id":721},"会計ソフトの残存価値",[723,724,729],"pre",{"className":725,"code":727,"language":728},[726],"language-text","紙/レシート → 仕訳データ → 会計ソフト → 国税庁API/弥生連携\n     ↑              ↑              ↑\n  AI活用専門家が    ただの        「仕様を翻訳してくれる」\n  すでに内製化     パススルー      ＝残存価値\n","text",[730,731,727],"code",{"__ignoreMap":732},"",[18,734,735,738],{},[46,736,737],{},"重要な問い",": 生成AIに仕様書を読ませて「e-Tax連携のコード書いて」で済むなら、会計ソフトの存在意義は？",[22,740],{},[14,742,744],{"id":743},"saasが本当に生き残るための条件","SaaSが本当に生き残るための条件",[18,746,747],{},"「仕様の翻訳」（AIで代替可能）ではなく：",[74,749,750,756,762],{},[43,751,752,755],{},[46,753,754],{},"仕様そのものを作る側","になる",[43,757,758,761],{},[46,759,760],{},"ネットワーク効果","を持つ",[43,763,764,767],{},[46,765,766],{},"運用責任を引き受ける","（決済、セキュリティ）",[22,769],{},[14,771,772],{"id":772},"日本市場の特殊性",[18,774,775],{},"海外では「SaaS is Dead」議論が活発だが、日本市場は「逆SaaS is Dead」現象が起きている。",[40,777,778,784],{},[43,779,780,783],{},[46,781,782],{},"米国",": エンジニアが多い → 内製化が進む → SaaS淘汰",[43,785,786,789],{},[46,787,788],{},"日本",": エンジニア少ない → SaaS依存継続",[18,791,792,795],{},[46,793,794],{},"しかし",": 「AI活用専門家」が増えると、日本でも淘汰が始まる可能性がある。",[22,797],{},[14,799,800],{"id":800},"結論",[74,802,803,808,813,818],{},[43,804,805],{},[46,806,807],{},"SaaS単位ではなく、バリューチェーンのどこを押さえているかで生死が分かれる",[43,809,810],{},[46,811,812],{},"「インフラ化」は安泰ではなく、単なる時間稼ぎ",[43,814,815],{},[46,816,817],{},"AI活用専門家（ドメイン知識×AI）の増加がSaaS淘汰を加速させる",[43,819,820],{},[46,821,822],{},"エンジニアの未来は明るい（AIを最もうまく使える人材として需要増）",{"title":732,"searchDepth":824,"depth":824,"links":825},2,[826,827,832,833,839,842,843,847,851,854,855,856],{"id":16,"depth":824,"text":16},{"id":26,"depth":824,"text":27,"children":828},[829,831],{"id":31,"depth":830,"text":32},3,{"id":38,"depth":830,"text":38},{"id":68,"depth":824,"text":69},{"id":110,"depth":824,"text":111,"children":834},[835,836,837,838],{"id":179,"depth":830,"text":180},{"id":194,"depth":830,"text":195},{"id":209,"depth":830,"text":210},{"id":239,"depth":830,"text":240},{"id":267,"depth":824,"text":268,"children":840},[841],{"id":302,"depth":830,"text":330},{"id":338,"depth":824,"text":339},{"id":409,"depth":824,"text":409,"children":844},[845,846],{"id":412,"depth":830,"text":413},{"id":507,"depth":830,"text":507},{"id":556,"depth":824,"text":557,"children":848},[849,850],{"id":560,"depth":830,"text":561},{"id":639,"depth":830,"text":640},{"id":666,"depth":824,"text":667,"children":852},[853],{"id":721,"depth":830,"text":721},{"id":743,"depth":824,"text":744},{"id":772,"depth":824,"text":772},{"id":800,"depth":824,"text":800},"dev",null,"生成AIの台頭によるSaaS企業の淘汰を四象限フレームワークで整理。バリューチェーン視点での生存条件と人材需要の変化を分析","md",{},true,"/saas_ai_analysis",false,"2026-01-29T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":5,"description":859},"2026-01/2026-01-29/saas_ai_analysis",[869,870,871],"SaaS","生成AI","ビジネス分析","Cm277VWqQtGDt8I0yQ_0UrfixkYCMoeiPxMd0Q2PBlk",[],[875,879,883,886,890],{"title":876,"path":877,"publishedAt":878},"世界のAI利用者を4層に分けると、ビジネス活用層は上位0.5%だった","/global-ai-adoption-tiers","2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":880,"path":881,"publishedAt":882},"生成AIが一番効くのは「作れないけど、見れば分かる」仕事 — ボトルネックは生成から評価へ","/genai-generation-evaluation-asymmetry","2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":884,"path":885,"publishedAt":882},"毛色の違うリサーチ記事を1日で3本書いた執筆デー: Kimi K3のHBM試算、BigTech決算プレビュー、生成AIの効きどころ","/research-articles-writing-day",{"title":887,"path":888,"publishedAt":889},"2026年7月3日の開発日記 - 生成AI記事2本の執筆と理科教材8トピック追加","/2026-07-03-diary","2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z",{"title":891,"path":892,"publishedAt":889},"AIに「お金を稼いできて」と頼めるか","/ai-earn-money-delegation","https://log.eurekapu.com/og/blog/saas_ai_analysis.png?v=2026-01-29T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&title=%E7%94%9F%E6%88%90AI%E6%99%82%E4%BB%A3%E3%81%AESaaS%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E6%88%A6%E7%95%A5%20-%20%E8%AD%B0%E8%AB%96%E3%81%BE%E3%81%A8%E3%82%81&author=Kei%20Komatsu&sig=3f257df15ecc2c6f",1785654727780]