成長率 × フォワード PER 散布図
構造転換済み 13 銘柄を対象に、横軸 = NTM EPS 成長率(次4Q合計 ÷ 直近4Q実績 − 1)、 縦軸 = フォワード PER(直近株価 ÷ NTM EPS)でプロット。 左下が「割安・成長弱め」、右上が「成長プレミアム」、右下が「成長率に対して PER が割安」のゾーン。
📖 この2軸が何を表し、何を表さないのか — 散布図の読み方と限界の解説
散布図の 2 軸の EPS 基準だけを切り替えます(下のデータテーブル・決算ビート表は Non-GAAP のまま据え置き)。
EPS 推移:過去実績のビート → NTM 予想
EPS 前四半期比増減率
Q1 FY25+52%
Q2 FY25-13%
Q3 FY25+22%
Q4 FY25+59%
Q1 FY26+58%
Q2 FY26+155%
Q3 FY26+106%
Q4 FY26+33%
Q2 FY27+26%
Q3 FY27+9%
Q4 FY27+8%
EPS 前年同期比増減率
Q1 FY25n/a
Q2 FY25+271%
Q3 FY25+208%
Q4 FY25+157%
Q1 FY26+167%
Q2 FY26+682%
Q3 FY26+1215%
Q4 FY26+1003%
Q2 FY27+784%
Q3 FY27+277%
Q4 FY27+97%
データテーブル(Non-GAAP・プロット対象 13 銘柄)
| 銘柄 | 直近株価 | LTM EPS | NTM EPS | 成長率 | フォワード PER | LTM 4Q(過去実績) / NTM 4Q(予想) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $934.26 | $75.51 | $176.05 | +133% | 5.3x | LTM1Q FY2026$4.78+2Q FY2026$12.20+3Q FY2026$25.11+4Q FY2026$33.42= $75.51 NTM1Q FY2027$38.29+2Q FY2027$42.25+3Q FY2027$46.00+4Q FY2027$49.50= $176.05 |
| NVDA | $213.66 | $7.01 | $12.09 | +73% | 17.7x | LTM3Q FY2026$1.30+4Q FY2026$1.62+1Q FY2027$1.87+2Q FY2027$2.22= $7.01 NTM3Q FY2027$2.47+4Q FY2027$2.75+1Q FY2028$3.20+2Q FY2028$3.68= $12.09 |
| SNDK | $1330.05 | $70.08 | $212.92 | +204% | 6.2x | LTM1Q FY2026$1.22+2Q FY2026$6.20+3Q FY2026$23.41+4Q FY2026$39.25= $70.08 NTM1Q FY2027$46.41+2Q FY2027$53.35+3Q FY2027$54.34+4Q FY2027$58.82= $212.92 |
| Samsung | $232000.00 | $32343.00 | $69519.28 | +115% | 3.3x | LTM4Q FY2025$2909.00+1Q FY2026$7123.00+2Q FY2026$10849.00+3Q FY2026$11462.00= $32343.00 NTM4Q FY2026$15075.51+1Q FY2027$16413.16+2Q FY2027$17994.12+3Q FY2027$20036.50= $69519.28 |
| SK hynix | $1526000.00 | $227520.00 | $500501.15 | +120% | 3.0x | LTM3Q FY2025$17850.00+4Q FY2025$21522.00+1Q FY2026$56670.00+2Q FY2026$131478.00= $227520.00 NTM4Q FY2026$120376.63+1Q FY2027$116925.67+2Q FY2027$126687.72+3Q FY2027$136511.12= $500501.15 |
| AMD | $566.46 | $5.76 | $11.20 | +94% | 50.6x | LTM3Q FY2025$1.20+4Q FY2025$1.53+1Q FY2026$1.37+2Q FY2026$1.66= $5.76 NTM3Q FY2026$1.94+4Q FY2026$2.66+1Q FY2027$3.01+2Q FY2027$3.59= $11.20 |
| キオクシア | $77540.00 | $1023.23 | $8978.47 | +777% | 8.6x | LTM1Q FY2026$33.74+2Q FY2026$75.04+3Q FY2026$162.04+4Q FY2026$752.41= $1023.23 NTM1Q FY2027$1683.10+2Q FY2027$2209.56+3Q FY2027$2517.63+4Q FY2027$2568.18= $8978.47 |
| DELL | $475.51 | $18.38 | $28.14 | +53% | 16.9x | LTM3Q FY2026$2.59+4Q FY2026$3.89+1Q FY2027$4.86+2Q FY2027$7.04= $18.38 NTM3Q FY2027$6.56+4Q FY2027$7.44+1Q FY2028$6.80+2Q FY2028$7.34= $28.14 |
| STX | $700.47 | $20.60 | $47.15 | +129% | 14.9x | LTM2Q FY2026$3.11+3Q FY2026$4.10+4Q FY2026$5.71+1Q FY2027$7.68= $20.60 NTM2Q FY2027$9.27+3Q FY2027$10.90+4Q FY2027$12.93+1Q FY2028$14.05= $47.15 |
| WDC | $395.32 | $13.05 | $28.88 | +121% | 13.7x | LTM2Q FY2026$2.13+3Q FY2026$2.72+4Q FY2026$3.56+1Q FY2027$4.64= $13.05 NTM2Q FY2027$5.87+3Q FY2027$6.78+4Q FY2027$7.78+1Q FY2028$8.45= $28.88 |
| CRDO | $165.11 | $4.10 | $7.29 | +78% | 22.6x | LTM2Q FY2026$0.67+3Q FY2026$1.07+4Q FY2026$1.16+1Q FY2027$1.20= $4.10 NTM2Q FY2027$1.28+3Q FY2027$1.61+4Q FY2027$2.20+1Q FY2028$2.20= $7.29 |
| RDDT | $129.60 | $6.12 | $8.54 | +40% | 15.2x | LTM3Q FY2025$1.26+4Q FY2025$1.68+1Q FY2026$1.40+2Q FY2026$1.77= $6.12 NTM3Q FY2026$1.95+4Q FY2026$2.42+1Q FY2027$1.84+2Q FY2027$2.33= $8.54 |
| ALAB | $290.43 | $2.48 | $5.62 | +127% | 51.7x | LTM3Q FY2025$0.49+4Q FY2025$0.58+1Q FY2026$0.61+2Q FY2026$0.80= $2.48 NTM3Q FY2026$1.19+4Q FY2026$1.42+1Q FY2027$1.46+2Q FY2027$1.55= $5.62 |